Final Preview of 2010 General Elections

Hamilton Consulting Group provides an update of the most closely watched races which will likely help decide who will control the legislative and executive branches in Madison.

Governor

Scott Walker led the primary from box to wire, eventually ousting his Republican primary competitor Mark Neumann with 60 percent of the vote. He now faces Democrat Tom Barrett. According to the polls, Walker has led Tom Barrett in head-to-head data since the race began. Various polls have Walker’s lead anywhere from three to nine points.
UPDATE: Polling in this race remains consistent from the prior report. Statewide polls still give Walker a healthy lead, as high as 10 points. Democratic based pollsters insist this race is closer and have Walker with a lead as little as 2 points. There has not been a single poll in recent times that shows Barrett tied or leading Walker.

Attorney General
Sitting Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen is facing challenger Scott Hassett. This race has stayed well below the radar and most insiders predict an easy victory for the incumbent.
UPDATE: The Attorney General’s race has registered on the radar as both candidates took to the airwaves. While most believe Hassett would still be considered a tremendous long shot to beat Van Hollen, some Democratic insiders believe the race is tighter than perceived.

State Senate
Republicans need a net gain of two seats to take back the majority they lost in 2006. There are four freshman Democrats that are bearing the brunt of that effort. The chessboard has shifted many times over the last few months, but control of the Senate still will likely come down to whether or not the Democrats can protect three of the four freshmen members.

UPDATE: 29th District: Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker vs. Republican Pam Galloway.
Since our last update, over half a million dollars have been put on television against Decker, and it is almost all negative. This race used to be hanging under the radar, but it is now a toss-up with the other four senate seats. This puts five senate seats into the toss-up category.
UPDATE: 25th District: Senator Jauch vs. Republican Dane Deutsch.
We are not ready to throw this race in the toss-up category yet, but independent groups have taken to the airwaves to try to unseat Jauch in a northern district that some view as winnable in the current environment.

State Assembly
There are many different dynamics in play that will have an impact on who controls the State Assembly at the end of the day. Republicans need to pick up four seats to hit the magic number of 50 for control.
The overall electoral environment means a lot more Democratic seats are in play than normally would be. The following provides a lay of the land as we currently see it. Our determination of whether or not the seat leans one way or the other, or is a toss-up, takes into account what both sides are saying about their chances, combined with available polling we’ve seen on the races. At this point in time they are not predictions of the outcome.

UPDATE: We have moved around slightly some of the races below and removed one name off of the completely safe list for Democrats. The biggest change was moving all but one of those on the “lean Republican” line to “strongly leaning Republican.”
The Assembly Democrats maintain the majority if:
The likeliest scenario would be for them to split the seats in the open Hubler and open Nelson, win the open Davis, and win 7 of the 8 incumbent protects that we consider in-play. They also need to not have any surprises from the incumbent Dems on the other lines below.
The Assembly Republicans take the majority if:
Their likeliest scenario is to sweep the open Hubler and open Nelson seats and knock off at least 1 incumbent. Both scenarios assume the open Wood seat goes Republican and the open Hilgenberg seat goes Democrat.
Chaos takes the majority if:
The parties split the open seats referenced earlier (at this point it seems unlikely Dems will win both the 5th and the 75th) and only one Assembly Democratic incumbent loses. This would likely put the Assembly at 49-49-1.

Current Position: 51 Democrats, 46 Republicans, 2 Independents
Open Seats: 20 – 8 Democrat, 11 Republican, 1 Independent
Safe Democratic Seats: 31
Strongly Leaning Democratic Seats: 6
Terry Van Akkeren, Andy Jorgenson, Cory Mason, Gordon Hintz, Benedict open, Tony Staskunas
Leaning Democratic Seats: 3
Jeff Smith, Mark Radcliffe, Marlin Schneider
Toss-up Democratic Seats: 11
Hubler open, Hilgenberg open, Nelson open, Ted Zigmunt, Ann Hraychuck, Fred Clark, Kim Hixson, Penny Bernard Schaber, Kristen Dexter, Jim Soletski, Phil Garthwaite
Safe Republican Seats: 36
Strongly Leaning Republican Seats: 9
Mark Honadel, Rhodes open, Montgomery open, Jerry Petrowski, Keith Ripp, Mary Williams, Lee Nerrison, Gary Bies, Open Friske seat
Leaning Republican Seats: 1
Jeff Wood open
Toss-up Republican Seats: 1
Open Davis seat
Leaning Independent Seat: 1
Ziegelbauer
New Assembly Members (won primaries – no major party opponents)
• Democrat Jocasta Zamarripa replaces Pedro Colon
• Democrat Elizabeth Coggs replaces Polly Williams
• Republican Dale Kooyenga replaces Leah Vukmir
• Republican Chris Kapenga replaces Scott Newcomer
• Republican Michelle Litjens replaces Roger Roth
Likely new Assembly members (won primaries in very partisan districts – with opponents)
• Republican Tyler August replaces Tom Lothian (pending potential appeal of recount results)
• Republican Jeremy Thiesfeldt replaces John Townsend
• Republican Paul Farrow replaces Rich Zipperer
• Republican Mike Kuglitsch replaces Mark Gundrum
• Democrat Brett Hulsey replaces Spencer Black
• Democrat Janet Bewley replaces Gary Sherman
Strongly leaning incumbent party holds in open seats
• Democrat Roger Anclam versus Republican Amy Loudenbeck to replace Democrat Chuck Benedict
• Republican Chad Weininger versus Democrat Sam Dunlop to replace Republican Phil Montgomery
• Republican Dean Knudson versus Matt Borup to replace Republican Kitty Rhodes
The six open seats in play
• 5th District: Democrat Mert Summers versus Republican Jim Steineke to replace Democrat Tom Nelson – Parts of Green Bay and areas to the west and south, Kaukana, Oneida County (lean Republican)
• 35th District: Republican Tom Tiffany versus Democrat Jay Schmelling to replace Republican Don Friske – Northcentral Wisconsin, including Tomahawk, Merrill, Antigo (strong lean Republican)
• 51st District: Democrat John Simonsen versus Republican Howard Marklein to replace Democrat Steve Hilgenberg – Southwest WI, includes Sauk, Iowa, and Lafayette Counties (toss-up)
• 67th District: Republican Tom Larson versus Democrat C.W. King to replace Independent Jeff Wood – Chippewa Falls and surrounding area to the north (lean Republican)
• 75th District: Democrat Steve Perala versus Republican Roger Rivard to replace Democrat Mary Hubler – Northwest Wisconsin, including Rice Lake and Spooner (lean Republican)
• 80th District: Democrat Janis Ringhand versus Dan Henke to replace Republican Brett Davis – Southwest of Madison including Evansville, Monroe and New Glarus (lean Democrat)
The eight top protects for Assembly Democrats
• 1st District: Ted Zigmunt versus Andre Jacque – Southeast of Green Bay, including Two Rivers
• 28th District: Ann Hraychuck versus Erik Severson – Northwest Wisconsin, including Polk and Burnett Counties
• 42nd District: Fred Clark versus Jack Cummings – Includes Dells, Baraboo, Portage
• 43rd District: Kim Hixson versus Evan Wynn – Southwest Wisconsin, including Edgerton, Milton and Whitewater
• 49th District: Phil Garthwaite versus Travis Tranel – Southwest Wisconsin, including Platteville, Grant County
• 57th District: Penny Bernard Schaber versus Chris Hanson – City of Appleton
• 68th District: Kristen Dexter versus Kathy Bernier – Northern Eau Claire, Fall Creek
• 88th Distric:t Jim Soletski versus John Klenke – Green Bay