With less than a week to go before the June 5 recall elections, tensions are running high across the Badger State. Hamilton Consulting’s detailed analysis of the recall primary results lays out each race and the implications of different outcomes, so in case you missed it be sure to check it out. Since the primary, few things have changed, but there is new information regarding polling and voter turnout.
Don’t forget to vote on June 5th, and be sure to follow @HCG500 on Twitter for Hamilton Consulting’s election night updates!
Numerous polls have come out since the recall primary, most of which show Gov. Walker with a slight lead falling within the margin of error. Real Clear Politics, which averages polls to show outcomes in the aggregate, has Walker up 6.6 points.
The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board is predicting that between 60 and 65 percent of the voting age population – or approximately 2.6 to 2.8 million people – will cast regular and absentee ballots for the Tuesday, June 5 Recall Election.
“Wisconsin has never had a statewide recall election, which makes predicting turnout difficult,” said Kevin Kennedy, director and general counsel of the G.A.B. “We typically look at history for guidance in predicting turnout. We expect turnout for this election to be much higher than the 49.7 percent turnout in the 2010 General Election for Governor, but not as high as the 69.2 percent turnout in the 2008 General Election for President of the United States.”
As of noon on May 29, a full week before the election, at least 130,391 absentee ballots had been issued by Wisconsin’s local election officials who track them using the Statewide Voter Registration System (SVRS).
To give that number some context, a total of 68,000 absentee ballots were tracked in SVRS for the May 8 recall primary. There were a total of 230,744 absentee ballots cast in the November 2010 General Election for Governor, and a total of 633,610 cast in the November 2008 General Election for President.
In-person absentee voting in the clerk’s office runs through 5 p.m. or the close of business on Friday, June 1, whichever is later. Some clerks are offering extended hours to handle demand. Voters can find their local clerk’s office address and phone number on the state’s Voter Public Access website. The deadline for clerks to receive a request for an absentee ballot by mail is 5 p.m. Thursday, May 31. Mailed absentee ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, and must be received by the clerk by 4 p.m. the Friday after the election. All properly-cast absentee ballots will count, regardless of how close the election is.
Wisconsin Eye’s Recall 2012 website is the best place to find in-depth interviews with recall candidates and full videos of news conferences, forums, and debates.
Hamilton Consulting’s Recall Elections Issue Updates webpage is continually updated with information on all of the recall races.
This post was authored by Emily Kelchen.