Hamilton Political Tidbits Pre-Election Edition – November 4, 2016

Nov. 4, 2016 - Political Tidbits Pre-Election Edition
Hamilton Consulting Group
 November 4, 2016
Wisconsin political news for clients and colleagues.

After over a year of campaigning it's finally here. The election is in just four days. In this limited-edition version of Tidbits, we take one last look at the key races everyone is watching. We also have an update on Marquette Law Schools' last poll. With Tuesday fast approaching, don't forget to visit our Election Update page for all our election coverage and results. 
If you wish to receive additional information about a topic addressed in Tidbits, please do not hesitate to contact a member of the Hamilton Consulting Team.

Tidbits Crystal Ball - What to Watch for on Election Night in Wisconsin

Clinton versus Trump
As this race drags us all to its final destination on Nov. 8 (assuming there is not a long, drawn out recount) we have been exposed to more head-to-head presidential polls than ever before. These polls have consistently had Clinton in the lead. Her "Real Clear Politics" advantage is +5.4 percent, her "538" aggregate advantage is +4.2 percent with a 77.8 percent chance of winning the state and the latest Marquette poll has her up 6 percent. These numbers bear some level of predictive significance, perhaps none more than the final Marquette poll. Their final poll had its largest sample size and smallest margin of error at 3.5 percent. The last four statewide polls that Marquette has released right before the election have been staggeringly accurate when it comes to predicting final margin.

The pick:              Clinton +4.5 percent

Marquette Law Poll: Clinton Leads Trump by Six Points, Johnson-Feingold Race Tightens

The latest Marquette University (MU) Law School Poll showed Clinton retaining a six-point lead over Trump and the Senate race tightening while Gov. Walker and President Obama's approval ratings remained the same. This will be the final Marquette poll before the election on Tuesday, Nov. 8.
Presidential Election
The poll showed that 46 percent of Wisconsin likely voters support Hillary Clinton, while 40 percent support Donald Trump, compared to 44-37 percent in the previous poll conducted in early October. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received four percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received three percent.

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News Clips
Surprise: Donald Trump doesn't seem to be hurting Ron Johnson: Wisconsin State Journal, November 4, 2016.
MU poll: Clinton leads Trump; Senate race tight: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, November 2, 2016.
The establishment joins Trump on the campaign trail: Wall Street Journal, November 2, 2016.
Ryan expresses confidence in retaining House speaker post: Janesville Gazette, November 2, 2016.
Ryan: I voted for Trump: The Hill, November 1, 2016.
Election model predicts big win for Clinton: The Hill, November 1, 2016.
Senate race in Wisconsin suddenly heating up again: La Crosse Tribune, November 1, 2016.
Trump, Pence, Kaine, Sanders all head to Wisconsin: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, October 31, 2016. 
Trump and Clinton tangle over Wisconsin issues: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, October 30, 2016.
Visit our website for more news clips.
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