Hamilton Political Tidbits Pre-Election Edition – November 4, 2016

As this race drags us all to its final destination on Nov. 8 (assuming there is not a long, drawn out recount) we have been exposed to more head-to-head presidential polls than ever before. These polls have consistently had Clinton in the lead. Her "Real Clear Politics" advantage is +5.4 percent, her "538" aggregate advantage is +4.2 percent with a 77.8 percent chance of winning the state and the latest Marquette poll has her up 6 percent. These numbers bear some level of predictive significance, perhaps none more than the final Marquette poll. Their final poll had its largest sample size and smallest margin of error at 3.5 percent. The last four statewide polls that Marquette has released right before the election have been staggeringly accurate when it comes to predicting final margin.

The pick:              Clinton +4.5 percent

The latest Marquette University (MU) Law School Poll showed Clinton retaining a six-point lead over Trump and the Senate race tightening while Gov. Walker and President Obama's approval ratings remained the same. This will be the final Marquette poll before the election on Tuesday, Nov. 8.

 

The poll showed that 46 percent of Wisconsin likely voters support Hillary Clinton, while 40 percent support Donald Trump, compared to 44-37 percent in the previous poll conducted in early October. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received four percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received three percent.