MADISON (WKOW) -- It's a new dawn for Democrats in Wisconsin after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers signed new legislative maps into law Monday.
A report from two consultants the Wisconsin Supreme Court hired to analyze the maps shows they significantly shrink the Republican majorities in the Assembly and Senate.
"The last 13 years, before the election even happened, you knew the outcome already," said Ben Wikler, the chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. "Republicans would have giant majorities."
Democrats are almost certain to gain seats in both chambers. WisPolitics editor JR Ross explained that there's likely no path to a Democratic majority in the Senate this year because there aren't enough competitive seats up for re-election this fall. But the Assembly is a different story.
"There's an opportunity," he said.
But Ross said it will come down to a number of factors, including how the Presidential race shakes out, the candidates that Democrats recruit, and the issues that will be top of mind for voters in November.
Wikler said it would take an enormous amount of work, but there are opportunities to flip seats that Democrats have not had in over a decade.
"The number of competitive races has tripled," he said. "So in all these places where, previously, the outcome was a foregone conclusion, there are now opportunities for Democrats to run for office."
Wikler said the new maps will inspire a new generation of Democratic candidates to enter races.
"There are candidates that I've been talking to for years in some cases, who have not wanted to run when their district was rigged for permanent Republican control," he said. "But now are planning to throw their hat in the ring."
According to an analysis by Marquette Law School fellow John Johnson, who created models based off the 2022 election results, Democrats gain advantages in districts across the state.
In the Assembly, Johnson predicts 42 districts will solidly favor Democrats while 46 will solidly favor Republicans. The Senate maps have 10 strongly Democratic districts while 15 are solidly Republican. In both cases, the solidly Republican number of districts shrink.
Under the new maps, Democrats pick up more competitive districts with a partisan lean of less than 53%.
In the Assembly, those include:
The 26th District (Sheboygan), 52.1% Dem.
The 30th District (Hudson), 52.6% Rep.
The 61st District (Greenfield, Greendale), 50.8% Rep.
The 85th District (Wausau), 52.6% Rep.
The 88th District (Green Bay), 52.1% Rep.
The 89th District (Green Bay), 50.8% Rep.
In the Senate, those include:
The 5th District (Brookfield, Pewaukee, Wauwatosa, West Allis), 51.7% Dem.
The 8th District (Germantown, Menomonee Falls, Mequon, Port Washington), 53% Rep.
The 14th District (Baraboo, Richland Center, Wisconsin Dells, Portage), leans Dem.
The 21st District (Franklin, Greenfield, Greendale, Racine), 51.1% Rep.
The 30th District (Green Bay), 52.6% Dem.
In south central Wisconsin, which includes Dane County, there were 11 Democratic-leaning Assembly seats in 2022. Under Evers' maps, that number increases to 16, with none of those being competitive districts.
You can watch JR Ross break down which districts could be consequential in the next few election cycles in the few at the top of this web story.
The Chair of the Republican Party, Brian Schimming, remained confident that Republicans will maintain an edge under new maps.
"I think Republicans will stay in pretty firm control the Senate, I think they'll be very competitive in the Assembly," he said. "I wonder what my friends on the other side of the aisle are going to say when they lose Legislative races on the issues this November and can't blame the maps anymore."
Schimming echoes analysis from Ross and Johnson, who also do not think Democrats take control of the Senate. Although Johnson says there's a good chance they could end the GOP supermajority there. He thinks districts 14, 18, and 30 would be good pickup opportunities.
REPUBLICAN BUSINESSMAN ERIC HOVDE LAUNCHES U.S. SENATE BID
It has been rumored for months that businessman Eric Hovde planned to launch a bid for U.S. Senate and a chance to take on Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin in November. On Wednesday, he formally launched his bid.
During his campaign event in Madison, Hovde promised Wisconsinites three things:
"I will work tirelessly on your behalf. I'm used to working hard. I didn't get here by not working hard. And I'm ready to roll up my sleeves for the people of this great state and for our country," he said. "Two, corruption in Washington has become prevalent [with] career politicians who all they do is put their interest of getting reelected first and taking corporate donations and corporate special interest money. I won't take one of their dollars. I can't be bought and I will not be bought."
Democrats have already gone on the offensive, attacking Hovde for being rich and for his home in California, saying he's out of touch with Wisconsin.
"He lives here, his kids are, I mean, the whole family has been here," said Schimming. "I'm also from Madison so we've known the Hovde name. Eric Hovde is so much a part of Wisconsin."
He said it shows desperation from Democrats and Baldwin.
"Tammy Baldwin's out of touch with Wisconsin," he said. "If they're talking about Eric Hovde, it's because they have their own problems."
Wikler said Baldwin has a proven track record of getting results for the people of Wisconsin, and accused Hovde of being more interested in tax breaks for the wealthy and abortion bans.
"He has been handpicked by Mitch McConnell to fly back to Wisconsin and run for Senate against Tammy Baldwin so they can get their national abortion ban through," he said. "When people find out what this guy is all about and they see what Tammy Baldwin has done, I think this is a race that we win."
We reached out to Hovde's campaign to clarify his stance on abortion and received this statement:
"It is clear after the Dobbs decision that the people of Wisconsin are the ones who should decide this issue. I believe the voters of Wisconsin can come together and find a common sense and compassionate solution that respects life while also safeguarding individual rights. I believe we need exceptions for cases of rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother, but Senator Baldwin’s extreme position to support the abortion of a healthy baby up to the moment of a full term delivery is unconscionable."Â
There are a few other Republican candidates who have declared their candidacy, including 40-year-old college student and chair of the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point College Republicans Rejani Raveendran, Trempealeau County Board Supervisor Stacey Klein, and private investigator Kyle Corrigan.Â
Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke and businessman Scott Mayer are both considering runs.
The fall primary is August 13th. The general election is set for November 5th.
