Wisconsinites have long complained that the state's late-in-the-season presidential primary dilutes voters' say in who gets the nomination. But this year's primary is in its own class of irrelevance, with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump having already secured enough delegates to become their parties' nominees.
That may curb turnout for the April 2 election, which — meaningless presidential primary aside — remains consequential for Wisconsin residents, who will be voting in hundreds of nonpartisan county, city, village and school board races as well as deciding a pair of proposed amendments to the state Constitution.
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Without a competitive Republican primary spurring conservative voters to the polls, "turnout will be lower and more balanced between the parties," predicted UW-Madison political science professor Barry Burden.
"Often the primaries are kind of winding down by the time we get to Wisconsin in April, and it becomes clear what's going to happen, but it isn't completely resolved," Burden said. "But we haven't seen an April election like this in a presidential year in a long time."
By the time Wisconsin held its last presidential primary in April 2020, Biden had already emerged as Democrats' likely nominee, but U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, D-Vermont, was still in the running and got over 30% of the vote. Sanders dropped out following the vote in Wisconsin, and Biden formally clinched the Democratic nomination in June.
In 2016, the nomination was still in play when the state primary was held, although its impact was minimal: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, beat Trump in the Republican primary, and Sanders beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Neither would go on to win their respective party's nomination, which Trump won that May and Clinton won in June.
In 2012, the April GOP presidential primary was competitive, with U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, beating former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pennsylvania, by 7 points. Romney wouldn't secure enough delegates to become the GOP nominee until late that May.
And in 2008, when Wisconsin had a February presidential primary, both eventual nominees — former President Barack Obama and former U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. — won their statewide contests here when the nationwide primary races were still up in the air. Obama wouldn't seal the nomination until June, and McCain didn't secure it until March.
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Local races less flashy, more immediate
While this year's primary has already been decided, some people will still be motivated to vote in the presidential race as a show of opposition to Biden or Trump, said Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin. But Franklin expected turnout to be muted.
"It's one of the paradoxes, I think, of American elections, that in terms of people's day-to-day circumstances, elections for mayors and city councils and county boards and schools, and referenda — whether for the city or for school things — those things have more direct impact on people than the much more distant presidential elections or statewide elections," he said. "But the capacity for local affairs to really drive high turnout is pretty limited, except in very rare circumstances."
Teachers' unions and other groups will often rally local voters to support school referendums, and in recent years conservative groups have tried to drum up support for their favored school board candidates, Franklin said.
"But it's not with multimillion-dollar TV ads, or, you know, constant mailers and phone calls," he said. "It's a much lower level of effort and expenditure. And the result is, I'm confident that most people don't know specifically what's on their ballot in April."
Unlike last spring's hotly contested state Supreme Court election, there are no statewide offices on the ballot this year. And while many municipalities, including several in Dane County, will see contested races, most local elections remain uncontested.
Local races that could drive turnout include mayoral elections in Wausau, Wisconsin Rapids and Milwaukee, while 91 school referendum questions will be put to voters around the state.
But overall, don't expect this April 2 election to break any voter turnout records.
"The top of the ticket has some reasons (for voters) to come out and vote and express yourself, and that will mean we don't see tiny, tiny turnout," Franklin said. "But ... there are an awful lot of ballot initiatives and local elections that have impact on people's lives that don't stir the passion and the turnout that we get for these national races."
2 referendum questions on the ballot
There are two statewide referendums on the ballot. The first would bar the use of private funds in administering elections, while the second would prohibit anyone other than election officials from performing election-related tasks.
Both are in response to the 2020 election, when Republicans objected to municipalities using grants from the Chicago-based Center for Tech & Civic Life to help administer the election just as the COVID-19 pandemic was getting underway. Although about 214 municipalities took advantage of the free money, Republicans argued it unfairly helped increase turnout in the Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee, Madison, Green Bay, Kenosha and Racine.
Republicans also accused Green Bay election officials of inviting an election adviser with close ties to CTCL to help run that city's election. City officials insist he merely offered advice and at no point was involved in the actual administration of the election.
State law currently defines an election official as “an individual who is charged with any duties relating to the conduct of an election.” That typically includes the municipal and county clerks and their “authorized representatives,” such as clerk’s office employees, poll workers and special voting deputies, who provide voting assistance to nursing home residents, according to the Legislative Reference Bureau.
If the constitutional amendment goes into effect, existing statutes would still allow clerks to hire individuals as “election officials designated by law.”
Groups supporting the amendments include Election Integrity for Wisconsin, Opportunity Solutions Project, Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty and the Wisconsin Voter Alliance.
Those opposed include the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, the ACLU of Wisconsin, League of Women Voters of Wisconsin, Wisconsin Conservation Voters, All Voting is Local Action Wisconsin and Wisconsin Democracy Campaign.
Proponents say the measures are needed to further restore faith in the electoral process and prevent partisan-based groups from influencing elections. Opponents say the Legislature has failed to properly fund election administration in the state and the proposals could further strain local officials’ ability to conduct elections.
Franklin said there has been little messaging about the proposed changes, lowering the likelihood they'll drive turnout for many people.
"I think they have the appeal to a certain type of voter skeptical of the 2020 outcome," he said. "I'm not sure that folks on the other side are particularly aware or likely to be mobilized by those proposals."