For the first time since the 1970s, Republicans and Democrats have adopted new legislative boundaries before the courts did it for them.
The maps the Republican-controlled Legislature passed and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers signed into law Monday have the potential to dramatically shift Wisconsin’s political landscape by weakening the GOP’s hold on the state Senate and Assembly. But Republicans said they had little choice, as the liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court was poised to select maps that could have been even more unfavorable to them.
“The maps I’m signing today are fair, responsive and reflect the will of the people,” Evers said at a Capitol bill-signing event, surrounded by advocates for a nonpartisan redistricting process and Democratic lawmakers. “Today’s a victory. Not for me or any political party, but for the state and people of Wisconsin who have spent a decade demanding more and demanding better of us as elected officials.”
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While Evers’ maps could shrink — and even reverse — Republicans’ long-standing legislative majorities, GOP lawmakers viewed the governor’s maps as more favorable for them than three other Democratic alternatives before the court.
“Today, Governor Evers signed the most Republican-leaning maps out of all the Democrat-gerrymandered maps being considered by the Wisconsin Supreme Court,” Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, said. “We sent him those maps, not because they are fair, but because the people of Wisconsin deserve certainty in state government.”
He added the enactment of the new maps “brings to end this sham of a litigation.”
Under Evers’ maps, the party that wins the most statewide votes is likely to take control of the Legislature, according to an analysis by court-hired redistricting consultants. But because only half of the Senate seats are up for reelection in the 2024 cycle, Democrats aren’t seeking to gain full legislative control just yet.
Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chair Ben Wikler said the party’s goal this year is to flip the GOP-controlled Assembly and lay the groundwork to flip the Senate in 2026.
Pivotal moment
The enactment of the new boundaries marks a significant political shift in Wisconsin where, for over a decade, Republicans benefitted from maps that experts say gave the GOP a baked-in electoral advantage.
Those maps, which determine which legislative district each voter gets to participate in, have helped hand Republicans a 22-10 supermajority in the Senate and a 64-35 majority in the Assembly.
“The Legislature faces two choices,” Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, R-Oostburg, said as the Legislature approved the maps last week. “Either pass the governor’s maps as is or let the liberal majority of the Wisconsin Supreme Court gerrymander the status quo.”
The proposal passed the Senate 18-14 and the Assembly 63-33. Every Democrat except Sen. Bob Wirch, D-Somers, and Rep. Sylvia Ortiz-Velez, D-Milwaukee, voted against the proposal along with several Republicans.
Evers said he never considered vetoing the proposal despite almost unanimous opposition from Democrats, who suspected some nefarious intent behind the Republicans’ endorsement of their nemeses’ maps, including a possible appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Republicans said no appeal is planned, and Evers said Monday he wasn’t worried about it.
“I’m thinking that’s a small risk, but if it is, we’ll take it on and win,” he said.
The governor said he spent a lot of time over the past few days with opponents and supporters of his maps, and some of the Democratic lawmakers who voted against the maps stood behind Evers at the signing ceremony.
‘A shot at a majority’
Those included Sen. Mark Spreitzer, D-Beloit, who voted against the plan last week citing the process by which they were introduced. The bill is an amended version of legislation that originally called for the Legislative Reference Bureau to redraw the state’s maps using nonpartisan principles. That broad policy change, which had been stuck in the Senate since October, was thrown out entirely in favor of simply adopting Evers’ maps.
“These are fair maps,” Spreitzer said. “If Republicans win a statewide election, they’re going to win a majority in the Legislature. If Democrats are going to win a statewide election, we’ve got a shot at a majority. That’s a shot we haven’t had for more than a decade now.”
Rep. LaKeshia Myers, D-Milwaukee, said she was “disappointed” in the process that led to the governor’s signing on Monday.
“The map signed today is still not truly ‘fair,’” Myers said, noting she has concerns with whether the boundaries comply with the federal Voting Rights Act, particularly regarding Black Wisconsinites in her 4th Senate District.
The state Supreme Court’s two appointed consultants wrote in their report issued earlier this month that none of the redistricting proposals, including Evers’, “appear to have equal protection issues or issues under the Voting Rights Act of 1965.”
If Democrats secure a majority this fall, Evers said one of his “first orders of business” will be enacting “fair, independent, nonpartisan redistricting.”
Without knowing what exact measure he’ll propose and what the Legislature’s balance of power will be next year, it’s unclear whether lawmakers on either side will support such a proposal.
Special election challenge
The legislation Evers signed includes a provision added by the reference bureau clarifying that the maps couldn’t be implemented until the 2024 general election, raising questions over how a special election to fill a vacant Senate seat would be administered.
In a letter to the high court Monday, Evers asked the justices to leave the redistricting case open for now so the court could decide which maps to use for that special election.
Under the new maps, incumbent lawmakers in 15 Assembly districts and six Senate districts would be required to run against one another, according to the reference bureau.
Republican incumbents would be paired in 15 districts. There are Democratic pairings in just two districts, and four of the new districts would include both Republican and Democratic incumbents.
Vos said Monday he’s confident Republicans will maintain legislative control, saying the GOP has better candidates than Democrats.
In the last election cycle, many legislative Democrats performed worse in their districts than Evers did. But Wikler attributed that to the state’s gerrymandered maps.
“The kind of race that someone runs when they have a realistic shot at winning if they work hard enough is fundamentally different,” he said. “The number of competitive districts has tripled.”
The enactment came as the high court was nearing its deadline to choose new maps after declaring the previous Republican-drawn maps unconstitutional in December. Wisconsin elections officials have said any new maps need to be in place by mid-March.
When the court struck down those maps, the four liberal justices comprising the majority said they would select new ones unless the Legislature did so first.
Now that Evers has signed the new maps into law, one of the parties involved in the court case could ask the court to dismiss the case as moot, UW-Madison Law School associate professor Robert Yablon said.