Wisconsin will now use new districts to elect members of the state Assembly and Senate, and those new maps will mean significant changes in the Madison area.
Dane County Democrats will have an opportunity to expand their representation in the Capitol, and a race in one part of the county could have big ramifications for the party's ability to retake control of the state Senate.
Some of the races in Dane County will be competitive, at least in the Democratic primary, with multiple Senate and Assembly seats set to have new representation come next year.
And there are hopes that the legislative races could, for the first time in a long time, spur on enthusiasm up and down the ballot — although not everyone loves the new lines.
Here are what Madison-area voters need to know about the new maps signed into law by Gov. Tony Evers last month.
New districts bring new intrigue
Dane County is considered a liberal stronghold, often with little competitive interest when the general election comes around.
But, under the old maps, pockets of Dane County were in Republican-held districts. Depending on how things go in 2024, every inch of Dane County could be represented by Democrats in the Assembly and, eventually, the Senate.
The Senate is almost certain to remain in GOP control, as only half of the races are on the ballot in 2024, with the remainder up for election in 2026. A good year for either party, however, could shape whether control of the chamber is in play in the years to come.
The most hotly contested race in Dane County, then, comes in the new 14th Senate District, which stretches from Richland Center to DeForest, and also includes Baraboo, the Wisconsin Dells and Sauk City. Much of that territory is currently divided between two Republican legislators, Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green, and Joan Ballweg, R-Markesan. Ballweg currently represents the 14th district.
But voters in the new 14th Senate District have a Democratic lean, based on election results in the last six years.
An interactive map on the Wisconsin Legislature website shows newly drawn state Senate districts. This image is zoomed in to show the Dane County area.
“That's one of the ones Democrats need to win,” said John Johnson, a research fellow at Marquette University Law School's Lubar Center for Public Policy Research. “They need to pick up that. Basically, they need to win all the seats that lean towards them. And then, if they do that, they'll be sitting pretty for having a good shot at winning a majority in 2026.”
Democrat Sarah Keyeski, a Lodi mental health counselor, confirmed she is running in the race after initially intending to run for the Assembly.
Ballweg, the 14th District senator, was redrawn into a neighboring district with another GOP senator, John Jagler of Watertown. She told the Cap Times she plans to move in order to run again in the 14th.
In the Assembly, changes to districts could mean Democrats will represent parts of the county such as DeForest, Deerfield and Marshall that are currently represented by conservatives.
The new 42nd Assembly District runs through DeForest, almost to the Madison city limits. While it combines that territory with parts of neighboring Sauk and Columbia counties, the new district is solidly blue.
In rural eastern Dane County, territory that is currently represented by a Waukesha County Republican, Rep. Barbara Dittrich of Oconomowoc, would be lumped in with a district that runs from Fort Atkinson to Cottage Grove.
And the increasingly blue tint of outlying parts of the Madison area have given Democrats a pathway to win in districts that start in Dane County but which primarily include other parts of the state.
Voters in Edgerton are now part of a Democrat-leaning district that includes all of Whitewater. And Mount Horeb residents are included in a traditionally Republican district that includes Dodgeville, Mineral Point and Darlington and now could swing to Democrats.
To Dane County Board Supervisor Jeff Weigand, this is a sign that the new maps are not a marked improvement from the old lines, both of which he calls gerrymandered.
Weigand, a conservative, noted significant differences between the rural and urban swaths of Dane County: For example, in the Marshall area he represents on the County Board, residents are as likely to go east to Watertown for shopping or dining as they are to travel to Madison.
Wisconsin state Sen. Joan Ballweg, R-Markesan, shakes hands with state Rep. Todd Novak, R-Dodgeville. Both lawmakers have said they will run for re-election under the new legislative districts.
The 48th Assembly District, which runs from Madison's far east side to Columbus, was another example of where he felt the new maps could have been more fair.
"You ask the question, what does someone that lives in Columbus have in common with someone that lives in the far east side of Madison?" Weigand said. "And I would say, you know, other than the fact that they live in the state of Wisconsin, there's not a lot of commonality."
Sen. Kelda Roys, D-Madison, said the new lines could be a chance to unite urban and rural voters alike.
"I'm certainly hopeful that it will be less demonizing and pitting communities against each other," she said.
A primary choice comes to Madison
Competitive primaries are more common in Dane County legislative races and voters will have some choices to make when they head to the polls in August.
The most high-profile race will be a contest to replace Sen. Melissa Agard, D-Madison, in representing the 16th Senate District, which includes far east Madison, Fitchburg, Sun Prairie and Fort Atkinson. Agard is departing the Senate to run for Dane County executive.
Three members of the Assembly who represent that area — Reps. Jimmy Anderson, D-Fitchburg, Melissa Ratcliff, D-Cottage Grove, and Samba Baldeh, D-Madison — all entered the race to replace Agard.
But not every primary will be competitive.
When Evers signed the new maps into law it confirmed that dozens of lawmakers would be paired together in the new districts, meaning legislators would need to move or engage in a bruising primary against a colleague.
Most of those paired up were Republicans, with one exception: Reps. Mike Bare, D-Verona, and Alex Joers, D-Middleton.
State Rep. Alex Joers, D-Middleton, will seek re-election in the 81st Assembly District.
Bare confirmed he would run for re-election in the Verona-area 80th Assembly District, leading to speculation about Joers’ plans.
The former Dane County supervisor announced last week he would run for the new 81st Assembly District, which includes much of the Middleton area. That avoids a competitive primary race for Democrats in western Dane County.
Other Madison-area lawmakers have confirmed to the Cap Times that they will run for re-election in 2024. They are:
26th Senate District: Sen Kelda Roys, D-Madison (central and east Madison)
50th Assembly District: Rep. Jenna Jacobson, D-Oregon (Oregon, Belleville, Green County)
- 51st Assembly District: Rep. Todd Novak, R-Dodgeville (Mount Horeb, part of Iowa County and all of Lafayette County)
- 78th Assembly District: Rep. Sheila Stubbs, D-Madison (south Madison and Monona)
79th Assembly District: Rep. Lisa Subeck, D-Madison (West Madison)
UW-Madison area voters could have a new representative
The new maps create an open seat in and around the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus, meaning voters there will have the chance to select new representation.
The 77th Assembly District, which also includes the near west side of Madison and Shorewood Hills, is likely to have a competitive primary. There is interest in the seat from multiple candidates.
Thad Schumacher, pharmacist and owner of Fitchburg Family Pharmacy, became the first to formally announce his run on Monday. Chuck Erickson, who represents the area on the Dane County Board of Supervisors, announced his run on Thursday.
The district leans heavily to the left, meaning it is possible Republicans don’t even put forward a candidate. Nearly 85% of voters in the district cast a ballot for Democrats in statewide elections over the last six years.
Other candidates have launched their campaigns for open Assembly seats. Andrew Hysell is running in the 48th Assembly District in and around Sun Prairie, east Madison and Columbus. And after Fitchburg Alder Joe Maldonado announced he would run in the 47th Assembly District that includes Fitchburg, Stoughton and McFarland, another Fitchburg Common Council member, Randy Udell, formalized his bid for the seat.
Could new maps juice turnout in Dane County?
Weigand said he believed his Republican Party could be competitive in some areas with the right candidate — to a point.
"There is a certain point where it's insurmountable," he said. "The partisan makeup of these districts is just too much for even a really good candidate that works really hard to win."
After the maps were locked in last month, hopes began to rise among Democrats that the prospect of competitive legislative races could energize left-leaning voters to turn out in November, potentially lifting the prospects of President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Madison, who are both on the ballot in what are expected to be razor-thin races.
Sen. Kelda Roys, D-Madison, will seek re-election to the state Senate and said she is hopeful that the new legislative districts can re-energize left-leaning voters.
Roys noted that Democratic candidates down ballot helped ensure turnout was good enough in 2018 to lift Evers across the finish line in his successful bid to defeat former Gov. Scott Walker, even though the Legislature was not in play.
“I do think that having competitive legislative districts is transformative for people who feel like the Wisconsin that they grew up in isn’t recognizable anymore,” she said.
While Dane County typically has some of the highest turnout in the state, a trend observers expect will continue in November, voters typically are not as aware of state legislative races as those for president or even U.S. Senate.
That leaves Johnson, the Marquette University public policy researcher, skeptical that they will ultimately move the needle much for either party at the top of the ticket.
“One poll I've seen found, you know, fewer than 20% of people could name their state legislator,” he said. “And almost everyone has an opinion about Trump and Biden. That's going to drive down-ballot activity much more than the reverse.”
