It’s safe to say 2023 brought a healthy dose of political upheaval to the Dairyland. Between threats of impeachment for a newly elected Supreme Court justice and a court order to redraw most of the state’s election maps, it might be hard to beat the drama we’ve seen over the last 365 days.
Even so, a nationwide general election, a fight for new legislative districts for the state and ongoing battles between a Republican-led state Senate and Assembly and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers are sure to keep us on the edge of our seats in the coming year.
Here are just a few political issues that are likely to affect Wisconsin voters and other residents heading into 2024:
Wisconsin again a critical swing state
It’s no secret Wisconsin is one of only a handful of states with potential to decide who comes out on top in 2024 presidential elections and who goes home. With the unpredictably purple nature of the state, Democrats are pushing for continued wins while the GOP has already begun work to pull back what used to be a far more conservative stronghold. Former Republican President Donald Trump narrowly won the state in 2016, but President Joe Biden flipped Wisconsin blue again in 2020, edging Trump out of a second term by a narrow voting margin.
Heading into 2024, the Dairy State remains somewhat unpredictable and, as such, will be a hot commodity among candidates hoping to secure the critical swing vote. The state is sure to be a frequent campaign stop, particularly for presidential hopefuls. Both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris visited the Milwaukee area in August leading up to the first GOP presidential primary debate, touting the Biden administration’s economic success and job growth.
That the Republican Party plans to hold its national convention to name its presidential nominee in Milwaukee in July is “not an accident,” according to Wisconsin Republican Party Chair Brian Schimming.
No one knows which way the political winds will blow in Wisconsin, but four of the last six presidential elections in the state have been decided by less than a percentage point, so it’s safe to say the stakes are high and the level of attention paid to Wisconsin voters may be higher.
Wisconsin political scholars say U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin has gained notable success in recent races due, in part, to her appeal to both Republican and Democratic voters.
Is Tammy unbeatable?
The 2024 general election is full of notable political races including eight Wisconsin congressional seats up for grabs and a presidential race some liberals have slated as a battle for democracy itself. But one race of particular interest is U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s bid for reelection. The popular Wisconsin Democrat has won every election she has entered since getting her start in local politics as a member of the Dane County Board in 1986.
Wisconsin political scholars say Baldwin has gained notable success in recent races due, in part, to her appeal to both Republican and Democratic voters. An example of the senator’s bipartisan appeal can be seen in Baldwin’s success in Richland County — an area of the state that strongly swung toward Trump in both 2016 and 2020 but sent Baldwin back to the Senate in 2018 by a strong margin.
For Democrats, keeping Baldwin in office is critical as the party holds just a 51-49 majority in the Senate. For Republicans, booting the beloved liberal could mark a major win for their power in the state and the Senate itself.
Potential GOP opponents have until the summer to announce a bid for the coveted Senate seat. Republican businessman Eric Hovde has said he is considering running but as it currently stands, Baldwin faces an unencumbered path to keep her office.
Taylor A.R. Meehan, attorney for the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Legislature, speaks before the Wisconsin Supreme Court during a redistricting hearing at the Wisconsin state Capitol Building in Madison on Nov. 21.
New maps could shape control of Legislature
The Wisconsin Supreme Court ended 2023 with a bang when it struck down the state’s legislative maps and ordered them redrawn ahead of the 2024 election cycle.
Based on the criteria the court said it will use to evaluate new maps, the new lines may well be more favorable to Democrats, who have not held either chamber of the Legislature since 2012. Experts say the changes could be particularly sweeping to districts in Dane County, northeast Wisconsin and the counties around Lake Superior.
But Republicans have indicated they will take the matter up with the U.S. Supreme Court, a fight that will drag into 2024 and, potentially, see them argue that whatever maps are selected should be tossed out by the nation’s highest court. Such a move wouldn’t be unprecedented — it happened in 2022. But no matter what, buckle up for plenty of map talk in the new year.
Wisconsin Supreme Court Justices Jill Karofsky, Rebecca Frank Dallet, Brian Hagedorn and Janet Protasiewicz are pictured during hearings in the fall. The court was the subject of much news in 2023 with decisions on abortion rights and the drawing of election maps at stake.
New liberal Supreme Court likely to issue final guidance on abortion law
Although abortion services resumed at Planned Parenthood clinics in Madison and Milwaukee in September, the legal grounds surrounding the issue remain hotly contested. In a case filed by the state Department of Justice after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, Dane County Judge Diane Schlipper issued a December decision asserting that Wisconsin law does not ban abortion.
This gave Planned Parenthood the legal confirmation it needed to begin providing abortion services at its Sheboygan clinics as well. However, Sheboygan County District Attorney Joel Urmanski has appealed the decision, and the blockbuster case is sure to make its way to the state Supreme Court before resolution is reached.
The high court’s recent change to a liberal majority gives Democrats and others who oppose a ban more confidence the justices will rule in favor of legalized abortion access.
Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, pledged to continue efforts to eliminate diversity, equity and inclusion programming in state government during a 2023 meeting of the Joint Committee on Employment Relations.
Diversity programming to get more scrutiny from legislators
Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, has indicated he plans to expand his efforts to limit diversity, equity and inclusion programming in state government. A deadlock between Vos and other GOP legislators and the Universities of Wisconsin was broken with a deal reached in December to fund several university priorities.
But Vos said he wants the UW changes, which will limit efforts to help attract and retain students and staff of color and supported other historically disadvantaged groups, to be only the first step in his crusade. He indicated he will push for a review of DEI positions across state government, including agencies such as the Department of Corrections, a process that could start in 2024, even if it extends into future budget cycles.
Starkweather Creek, pictured in May, flows through Dane County Regional Airport and Truax Field in Madison and contains high levels of dangerous "forever chemicals" known as PFAS.
Lawmakers to resolve PFAS funding battle
Environmental advocates hailed the 2023 budget as a step forward for addressing the issue of PFAS, potentially toxic chemicals that have been found in scores of communities across the state.
But the budgeted $125 million has sat in the bank. A legislative proposal to help communities and landowners clean up the chemicals caught flak from affected communities and environmental groups over fears it could limit state enforcement actions.
Evers might not sign the current version, creating a standoff that will need to be resolved if the money is to be distributed. A regulatory effort to limit PFAS in groundwater has also stalled, with its fate also likely to be determined in 2024.
