Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Wisconsin has once again been in the national headlines (for example, here, here, here and here) this week after an unexpected outcome in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley eked out a victory of roughly 3,000 votes—a 0.4 percent margin—over state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist from Madison. Leading up to the primary election, poll after poll had Hong leading the race by wide margins. However, digging deeper into the final polls, 10–15 percent of voters remained undecided, indicating that the race was less settled than Hong’s wide polling leads suggested.
Crowley suspended his campaign in early July for 10 days and endorsed Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez, who was starting to garner mainstream Democratic support before her campaign imploded a few days later due to significant financial issues that remain unclear.
With Rodriguez’s abrupt departure, Crowley re-entered the race in mid-July and received the backing of Democratic Governor Tony Evers, who remains popular in statewide polling. Evers’ late engagement and support, combined with the resurfacing of Hong’s past controversial tweets, which drew renewed scrutiny, may have helped create a path for Crowley to win. Crowley is well-known in Capitol circles, as he was a legislative staffer, legislator and is now Milwaukee County Executive. His primary victory sets the general election on a completely different trajectory than what many were predicting just a few days ago.
Crowley will now face current Wisconsin Congressman Tom Tiffany in the general election. Tiffany is also well-known in Madison, as he served in the Wisconsin Legislature for almost a decade before representing Wisconsin’s northern and rural 7th Congressional District. While in Congress, Tiffany has been closely aligned with President Trump, who has already endorsed him in the Wisconsin governor’s race.
Prior to Tuesday, much of the attention was focused on Hong’s record and past statements rather than Tiffany’s. With Crowley’s primary victory, Tiffany may now face greater scrutiny over positions such as his vote against certifying the 2020 election. That said, in a state that is always tight, November is likely to still be a very close race, and there will be a lot of spending given the national election implications for swing-state Wisconsin.
Republican Lt. Governor Primary
While the Dems had a turbulent primary for governor, the Dem candidate for lieutenant governor—Sarah Godlewski, the current Secretary of State, did not face a challenger. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, party-endorsed radio host Will Martin lost to David Varnam by roughly 10 percent of the vote. Martin had been campaigning with Tiffany and was the expected lieutenant governor nominee.
Varnam, a former mayor of Lancaster, Wisconsin, and congressional aide, won in a surprise victory over Martin. Varnam received support from Pro-Life Wisconsin prior to the primary and centered his campaign around that issue.
State Senate Primaries
Control of the Wisconsin State Senate was arguably more impacted by the outcome of the Dem primary than by any individual Senate primaries. Currently, Republicans hold a three-seat majority in the Senate, 18–15. Wisconsin senators are elected to four-year terms, and every two years, half of the seats are up for reelection. This year, the odd-numbered Senate districts are up.
There are four competitive seats up in November that will determine control of the chamber: Senate District 5 (Milwaukee suburbs), Senate District 17 (southwestern Wisconsin stretching to outer Dane County), Senate District 21 (Racine up to Franklin) and Senate District 31 (Eau Claire area).
Of those seats, there was only one notable result from Tuesday’s primary, and that was in SD 17 on the Dem side. As expected, current Assembly Rep. Jenna Jacobson beat out two other candidates to take on current State Senator Howard Marklein. Jacobson received the support of the State Senate Democratic Committee. Dems view this seat as a critical flip to win the majority in November.
There were a handful of other Republican primaries on Tuesday in seats that are expected to stay Republican. This includes SD 11, which is in south-central Wisconsin and is a solid-red seat. With longtime Senator Steve Nass retiring, there was an open race with three candidates. Ultimately, former state Rep. and staffer Ellen Schutt won the primary and is favored to win the general election.
Similarly, there was an open seat in northeastern Wisconsin’s SD 1 after Sen. Andre Jacque decided to retire. This race was very contentious, with four candidates vying to take the seat. Ultimately, Nic Cravillion, a staffer for Jacque, beat out the three other candidates and is favored to take his boss’ seat in 2027. Cravillion does face an independent challenger, Mark Becker, in the general election in November.
Meanwhile, in SD 9 which spans Sheboygan to Manitowoc to Fond du Lac, former Rep. Amy Binsfield won unopposed in the Republican primary. Binsfield is expected to be in the Senate in November with the retirement of current Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu.
Finally, in what is a slightly more competitive seat in November, former Rep. Erik Severson beat another former Rep., Angie Sapik, in SD 25, which covers northwestern Wisconsin. Severson will face Democrat Charly Ray, a Bayfield County Board supervisor, in November.
SD 25 is a lean-red district; however, the Senate Dems have started to eye it as a possible stretch-goal pickup opportunity if the political environment moves in their favor in November. With Crowley now at the top of the ticket, Democrats may see an increased opportunity to compete for the seat.
State Assembly Primaries
Like the Senate, the largest impact from Tuesday’s primary on control of the Assembly in 2027 was at the top of the ticket. Many view Crowley’s win as increasing the chances for Assembly Dems to flip the lower chamber, although that path is not as straightforward as it is in the Senate.
Currently, Republicans control the Assembly 54–45, and the path for Dems to take a slim majority rests on protecting two purple seats—AD 89 (Green Bay/Ashwaubenon) and AD 94 (La Crosse)—and picking up five competitive seats, several of which are in the competitive Senate districts noted above.
That said, Tuesday’s election did have some implications for November. This includes the purple AD 21 (Oak Creek), an open race due to GOP Rep. Jesse Rodriguez’s retirement. Oak Creek Mayor Daniel Bukiewicz, who was viewed as the more moderate candidate, beat out David Liners. This result could potentially help the Assembly Democrats position themselves for a flip in November. Bukiewicz will face college student and Republican Dylan Pfaffenbach in November.
Another notable result is in AD 8 (Milwaukee), where incumbent Rep. Sylvia Ortiz-Velez lost to challenger Ismael Luna. Luna received the backing of the Assembly Dem Campaign Committee and other groups in the race. Ortiz-Velez had conflicts with her Assembly caucus members last session and broke with the caucus on several issues. Many saw her as a possible swing vote in a potentially tight-margin chamber. Luna is expected to win this solid-blue seat in November.
Also in Milwaukee, and in a reverse outcome, current incumbent and democratic socialist Ryan Clancy of AD 19 (Milwaukee) fended off a challenge from Bridget Maniaci. Clancy, a vocal Hong supporter, could end up being a critical vote next session should the Assembly Dems take control.
Finally, in another competitive seat, Democrat Ben Brist beat two other challengers in AD 61 (Greenfield) to take on GOP incumbent Rep. Bob Donovan. AD 61 is considered one of the top targets for a Dem pickup in November. GOP-affiliated groups supported Brist’s challengers, underscoring the stakes in this race.
While there were several other partisan Assembly primaries on Tuesday, most do not have implications for November and beyond.