Wisconsin reaffirmed its status as a crucial battleground state, becoming the first in the “blue wall” to flip for Trump, virtually sealing his victory. Despite months of polls indicating a tight race, the final margin was just over 30,000 votes, with Trump leading Harris by less than 1% (49.7% to 48.8%).This is a larger margin of victory than his win in Wisconsin in 2016.

We’ll leave the Monday morning quarterbacking to the pundits, but it seems straightforward.  While Harris had more money and a better field operation she couldn’t overcome voter sentiment about the economy. Poll after poll consistently showed it as the number one issue for voters and people trusted Trump over Harris by a significant margin.

In an even closer race, Tammy Baldwin looks to have defeated Eric Hovde by just over 25,000 votes holding an important seat for Democrats for the next six years. For the first time since 1968, Wisconsin voters elected a U.S. Senator from a different party than their choice for President. However, Republicans have flipped the U.S. Senate and ousted several incumbents.

Republicans Hold Majorities in State Capitol

After years of focus on redistricting and new maps Wisconsin finally had its first election under the newly drawn legislative maps. While not all races have been finalized, the State Assembly appears set to start the session with a 54-45 Republican majority, while the State Senate holds an 18-15 Republican majority.

While the Republican margin in the Assembly shrank by ten seats, it is largely perceived as a good night for Speaker Vos as they were able to hold on to incumbents in democratic territory providing a margin that allows some wiggle room as the caucus moves through session.  Assembly Democrats did pick up a couple 50/50 open seats and expect to have a larger impact on legislation moving forward.

In the State Senate Democrats swept all five contested seats knocking the Republican margin from 22-11 to 18-15 leaving Senate Republicans no room for error and likely in need of Democratic support to pass most bills. Looking ahead, Democrats will need to win two of four competitive seats in 2026 to take the majority for the first time in what will be 16 years, a prospect that will shape both caucuses’ strategies in the coming session. That potential flip will play heavy into the upcoming session for both caucuses.

And just as we are trying to put this marathon election season to bed,  Wisconsin is already gearing up for another significant battle: a State Supreme Court race that will determine the court’s balance in April 2025.