Wisconsin’s new state legislative maps will very likely result in a narrowing of Senate Republicans’ current 22-11 majority. Running on staggered four-year terms, 16 of the Senate’s 33 seats are up for election. Three of those seats are considered toss-ups, two of those seats are “lean” to “likely” Democrat while the other 11 seats are not considered competitive. While it is not possible for Democrats to capture the majority in the Senate in 2024, they have the possibility to significantly narrow the gap putting the majority in play in 2026. Making gains won’t be easy though as Republicans have incumbent senators running in two of the three toss-ups.
From the Democrat’s perspective the goal is a sweep of the three seats which would put them at 15 for the first time since they lost the majority in 2010. Getting to 15 would not only put a majority take-back in 2026 squarely in play it would also make legislating very difficult for the Republicans knowing they can only lose one member’s vote on any given issue.
From the Republican perspective, if they can win two out of three of the toss-ups they would come back at 20, giving them breathing room in their caucus while putting any majority talk in 2026 out of play.
Senate District 8
Current incumbent Sen. Duey Stroebel is running for reelection in a district that looks different from past cycles. The new map produced a 51percent GOP seat in this northern Milwaukee suburb seat that includes parts of southern Washington and Ozaukee counties, with the northern pieces of Milwaukee and Waukesha counties. Challenging Stroebel is environmental attorney Jodi Habush Sinykin, who narrowly lost in 2023 in a special election to Senator Dan Knodl. Under the new maps, Knodl’s and Stroebel’s districts were combined into the new Senate District 8, prompting Knodl to return to the Assembly, where he is anticipated to win his race in November. Fresh off her special election race in 2023 and with notable name ID (Habush), Habush Sinykin is calling her race against Stroebel “Take Two.” This race will likely be the most expensive and contentious race of the cycle.
Senate District 14
State Sen. Joan Ballweg is seeking reelection in a district that looks quite different from her previous rural, predominantly red farming area. The new 14th District now spans Columbia, Sauk, and Richland counties and extends into Dane County, covering the solidly Democratic northeast side of Madison. With 20 years of experience in the legislature, Ballweg is no novice, but she will need to reintroduce herself to significant portions of her new constituency. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate, Sarah Keyeski, a mental health practitioner from Lodi, is emphasizing her Democratic credentials in a district that now leans 52 percent Democratic. Republicans will highlight Ballweg as a moderate and hope her incumbency advantage will win out over the relatively unknown Keyeski. Keyeski backers will point to the district makeup and the fact that Mandela Barnes won the district in 2022 and Biden won it in 2020.
Senate District 18
This newly created district stretches from Appleton to Oshkosh along the shores of Lake Winnebago and includes Menasha, Neenah, and Fox Crossing. On the Republican side, physician Anthony Phillips emerged as the clear winner in the August primary and will face Kristin Alfheim, an Appleton City Council member, retirement planner, and advocate. Alfheim has been campaigning in this district, which leans 54 percent Democratic, for several months, giving her a head start against Phillips. Political insiders expect Alfheim to win and this seat is considered a “lean/likely” Dem seat.
Senate District 30
In the game of musical redistricting chairs, no incumbent Republican wanted to run in the new 30th. This district, which includes the city of Green Bay and the villages of De Pere, Bellevue, and Allouez, initially encompassed the areas of three current state senators: Eric Wimberger, Andre Jacque, and Rob Cowles. However, all three chose to bow out—either by moving to more favorable Republican seats or, in Cowles’ case, retiring altogether. This left the 30th District an open competitive seat, with two well-known local candidates now facing off in the general election: Democrat Jamie Wall, a business and economic development consultant, and Republican Jim Rafter, a member of the Allouez Village Board. This is a toss-up in the truest sense and is expected to come down to the wire.
Senate District 32
Incumbent State Senator Brad Pfaff is well-acquainted with much of his new district, with parts of the Western border of the state along the Mississippi, including La Crosse and extending down through Vernon County. This district, which leans 54 percent Democratic, is a blend of rural dairy land and the more urban area of La Crosse. Pfaff faces Republican Stacey Klein, a Trempealeau County Board member who initially launched a bid for the U.S. Senate before shifting her focus to the state Senate race. While incumbents typically have an advantage, the redrawn district and various other factors could put this seat in play if Trump were to have a big night. Barring that scenario, Senator Pfaff is expected to hold his seat.