Polls Predict Close Races

Two recent polls predict close races for the August 14 primary and the general election in November.

Marquette Law Poll

The latest Marquette Law Poll, its last before the August 14 primary, surveyed 1400 registered voters from Aug. 2- 5.

The poll finds Senate Republican primary has tightened, with Thompson still in lead. 28 percent of respondents backed Thompson, compared to 20 percent for Eric Hovde, 18 percent for Mark Neumann and 13 percent for Jeff Fitzgerald. 21 percent of respondents remain undecided.

When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean towards, it was Thompson 33, Hovde 24, Neumann 21 and Fitzgerald 15 with 7 percent undecided.

In last month’s Marquette poll, it was Thompson 35, Hovde 23, Neumann 10 and Fitzgerald 6.

The poll also surveyed respondents about each GOP candidates versus Democratic U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin. The poll found Thompson was the only GOP candidate able to best Baldwin (48-43 percent). Baldwin ties with Neumann at 44 percent, and beats Hovde 44-41 and Fitzgerald 45-40.

In the presidential race, President Obama led Mitt Romney 50-45, compared to a 51-43 spread in last month’s survey. The presidential race has remained stable since late May when Obama also led 51-43.

Video presentation from Marquette Law discussing the poll and results.

Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Poll

A survey from Quinnipiac University, the New York Times and CBS News predicts a tight fall U.S. Senate race. The group surveyed 1,428 likely Wisconsin voters from July 31-Aug. 6 using live interviews of land lines and cell phones. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

The poll also asked about the Presidential race since Wisconsin is considered a swing state. The poll had Obama up 51 percent to 45 percent and found a significant gender gap in Wisconsin. Obama led among women 59-36, while Romney led among men 53-43. The poll found Obama edging Romney among independents 48-47.

The survey also predicts a tight fall U.S. Senate race. Democratic U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin and former Gov. Tommy Thompson were tied at 47 percent each, while Baldwin topped Eric Hovde 47-43 and Mark Neumann 48-45. The survey did not include Fitzgerald in its questions.


Video of Quinnipiac Polling Institute Assistant Director Tim Malloy discussing the survey.