Hamilton Political Tidbits – May 1, 2024

Articles in this edition of Political Tidbits:

• Session in Review: Wisconsin Legislature 2023-24
• Supreme Court Hears Arguments on JCF Oversight of Stewardship Program

Other updates in this edition:

• 2024 Election Updates
• Bits & Pieces
• Education Policy Updates
• News Clips

If you have any questions, please contact a member of the Hamilton Consulting team.

2024 Election Updates

The 2024 election season is ramping up, and Wisconsin is positioned to be a national political battleground yet again. On the November 5 ballot, Wisconsinites will see competitive statewide races for President and U.S. Senate, plus the state’s eight congressional districts, all 99 Assembly districts, and the 16 even-numbered districts of the Senate. The state primary election is August 13.

See the latest Marquette Poll of Wisconsin voters, published April 17, here. The poll found that the statewide races are close, with Donald Trump leading Joe Biden 51-49 and Tammy Baldwin leading Eric Hovde 52-47 percent among registered voters. A recent CBS News poll of registered voters found Trump leading Biden 50-49 and Baldwin leading Hovde 48-41. An Emerson College poll of swing state voters published yesterday found Trump ahead of Biden by two points in Wisconsin, 47-45, with eight percent undecided.

U.S. Senate

Democrat incumbent Tammy Baldwin is seeking a third term in the U.S. Senate. While Wisconsin is considered a swing state, where statewide races frequently come down to the wire, Baldwin is considered a formidable candidate who has outperformed fellow Democrats in rural areas in past races. She has already raised and spent millions on early advertising and finished the first quarter of the year with more than $10 million cash on hand.

Republican challenger Eric Hovde is a businessman from Madison with experience in real estate and financial services. He officially entered the race in February with the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and has since received Donald Trump’s endorsement. So far, Hovde has self-funded his campaign to the tune of $8 million.

Fellow Republican businessman Scott Mayer opted not to enter the race out of a desire to avoid a primary election; former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke has also been discussed as a possible candidate.

Wisconsin Legislature

For state elections, the window to circulate nomination papers opened on April 15. Nomination papers, candidacy statements, and campaign registration statements are due June 3. Incumbents must notify election officials of their intent not to seek reelection by May 24.

The state legislature will look a lot different next session, largely due to redistricting changes agreed to by Gov. Tony Evers (D) and Republican legislative leaders, precipitated by a Wisconsin Supreme Court decision late last year. See the official maps here and use this tool to compare old and new district lines and to search by address.

We will have more updates in the coming weeks and months as incumbents and new candidates finalize their plans. Already, at least 21 legislators have announced they will not seek reelection to their current office, and 23 more have announced they will run in a different numbered district than the one they currently represent. A few notable stories are below.

WEC Rejects Vos Recall: The Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) unanimously rejected a petition to recall Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) after commission staff found that the petitioners did not collect enough signatures to trigger a recall election, whether looking at Vos’ district pre- or post-redistricting.

Recall organizers have argued that Vos didn’t do enough to challenge the 2020 presidential election results in Wisconsin and didn’t work to impeach the state elections administrator. Petitioners have since claimed that their recall effort was “sabotaged” and “infiltrated by outsiders from New York and California.”

Before WEC officially rejected their petition, recall organizers launched a second effort to recall Vos. Signatures for that petition would be due May 28 and a recall election would likely occur in September. Additionally, or alternatively, Vos could face a primary challenge in August, as he did in 2022.

Vos has called the recall organizers “whack jobs and morons” and suggested that “professional grifters” from out of state are involved with the effort. In the first recall effort, Vos challenged the validity of many petition circulators and the signatures they collected, claiming the effort was “plagued with fraud and criminality” including forged signatures, duplicate and underaged signers, illegible and incomplete personal information, and that some circulators had felony convictions.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court denied a motion from WEC asking for clarification on whether the old or new district maps should be used for any recall or special election held before November. The court reiterated that its decision last year enjoined WEC “from using [the prior] legislative maps in all future elections” and stated that administering Wisconsin elections is WEC’s responsibility, not the supreme court’s.

Still No Date for Milwaukee Senate Special: Gov. Evers has yet to order a special election for the Milwaukee-area Senate district formerly held by Democrat Lena Taylor. The governor appointed Taylor to a Milwaukee County judgeship more than three months ago; based on the timing of that vacancy, state law requires Gov. Evers to call a special election to fill the seat. Along with WEC’s request to the supreme court regarding the Vos recall, discussed above, Gov. Evers wanted the court to clarify which district boundaries should be used for the special election.

Cowles Won’t Seek Reelection; Wimberger to Change Districts: The Wisconsin Senate’s longest-serving member has announced he will not seek reelection this year. Sen. Rob Cowles (R-Green Bay) has served in the Senate since 1987 and was first elected to the Assembly in 1982. Due to redistricting, Cowles’ home was moved from Senate District (SD) 2 into SD 30, now a slightly Democratic-leaning district mostly consisting of the City of Green Bay. The new SD 2 still comprises most of Cowles’ old district, while SD 30 is currently represented by another Green Bay Republican, Sen. Eric Wimberger. Initially, both Cowles and Wimberger stated that they would move to and run for office in the newly constituted SD 2; now, with Cowles’ retirement announcement, Wimberger appears to have the Republican nomination to himself.

Brandtjen Won’t Face Criminal Charges: Waukesha County DA Susan Opper said that she will not criminally charge Rep. Janel Brandtjen (R-Menomonee Falls) for allegedly participating in a scheme to skirt campaign donation limits to aid Adam Steen’s campaign against Speaker Vos in 2022. Opper wrote that she did not believe the evidence against Brandtjen would be admissible in court. The Wisconsin Ethics Commission referred the case to Opper for criminal prosecution and could still refer the case to another prosecutor or the state Department of Justice. Opper also noted that the commission could file a civil case against Brandtjen. Brandtjen just announced that she will seek reelection to the Assembly in the redrawn 24th Assembly District (currently, she represents the 22nd). She will face Sen. Dan Knodl (R-Germantown) in a primary election; Knodl chose to run for Assembly again after he and Sen. Duey Stroebel (R-Saukville) were drawn into the same Senate district.

Bits & Pieces

SCOWIS Justice Walsh Bradley Won't Seek Reelection in 2025

Justice Ann Walsh Bradley has announced that she will not seek a fourth term on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, a reversal after telling reporters last spring that she planned to seek reelection in the 2025 spring election. Walsh Bradley is a judicial liberal and the court’s longest-serving active member, having been on the bench since 1995. See this statement from Gov. Evers on Walsh Bradley’s announcement.

As for possible candidates, former Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel got out of the gates early, announcing last November that he would run in 2025 as a judicial conservative. Appellate Judge Maria Lazar is considering running as a conservative, too. On the progressive side, appellate Judges Chris Taylor and Pedro Colón have both decided against entering the race. Dane County Judge Susan Crawford is still considering a run.

The 2025 campaign for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court promises to be highly competitive and very expensive. Judicial liberals currently enjoy a 4-3 majority on the court due to the election of Justice Janet Protasiewicz last year in a race that broke national campaign spending records. After 2025, conservatives will not have the opportunity to recapture a majority until 2028 or later. The terms of conservative Justices Rebecca Bradley and Annette Ziegler will be up in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Gov. Evers Appoints New DOR Secretary

On Tax Day, Gov. Evers announced the appointment of David Casey as secretary of the Department of Revenue. Casey assumed the position on April 29. Most recently, Casey worked as a tax compliance and fraud professional for SAS Institute, an analytics software company. Casey served as deputy revenue secretary from 2019 to 2022 under former Secretary Peter Barca. Barca resigned from the department in late March, shortly before announcing a bid for Congress.

Meanwhile, the Departments of Corrections and Natural Resources both remain leaderless; DNR has been without an appointed secretary since October 2023, while former DOC Secretary Kevin Carr retired in March. Barca and Carr were among Gov. Evers’ original cabinet appointees from when he first took office in 2019.

PA Licensure Compact Reaches Critical Mass

April 4, the Physician Assistant Licensure Compact was enacted in Virginia, making it the seventh state to ratify and thereby “activate” the compact. Since then, Maine and Oklahoma have also joined the compact (totaling nine states), and legislation is pending in at least nine other states. Wisconsin became the third state to join the compact with the enactment of 2023 Act 81 late last year.

Senate Utility Committee Holds Community Solar Hearing

April 25, the Senate Committee on Utilities and Technology held a public informational hearing on community solar. The committee heard from the following individuals:

• Brandon Smithwood, Vice President of Policy, Dimension Renewable Energy
• JD Smith & John Schulze, Arch Electric & Associated Builders and Contractors of Wisconsin
• Zack Hill, Senior Manager of Public Affairs, Alliant Energy
• Sarah Moon, Co-Founder & Principal, Fieldworks Power

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