Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes race is a toss-up; Tony Evers holds narrow lead over Tim Michels in Marquette Poll
With less than two months to go before the midterms, Wisconsin's two big political races are where you would expect them to be: awfully close.
Wednesday's Marquette University Law School Poll showed the race for U.S. Senate as a toss-up, while Democratic Gov. Tony Evers held a narrow lead in his reelection effort.
In the Senate race, Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson was at 49% among likely voters, compared with his challenger, Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who was at 48%.
Johnson made up a lot of ground after the August primary, as independent voters shifted from a strong Barnes advantage in August to a narrow lead for Johnson in the September survey.
In the run for governor, Evers held a narrow advantage over Republican businessman Tim Michels.
Evers was at 47% among likely voters while Michels was at 44%. Independent Joan Beglinger, who has dropped out of the race, was at 5%.
Both races were well within the poll's margin of error.
Poll director Charles Franklin called the results "an utterly predictable tightening of the races."
In Marquette's August survey, Barnes was at 52% while Johnson was at 45% among likely voters. The governor's race was closer, with Evers leading Michels, 48% to 44%.
Negative ads against Mandela Barnes may be having an effect
A barrage of negative attack ads unleashed on Barnes after his primary victory may be moving numbers in the Senate race.
"The advertising has kicked in, the campaign itself has kicked in," Franklin said. "Some tightening was pretty likely."
Franklin added "a candidate who is generally liked but not very well known is vulnerable to negative ads."
Among registered voters, Barnes was viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 33%, a shift from August when it was it was 37% favorable and 22% unfavorable.
Johnson continued to remain underwater on voter views of him, with 39% favorable and 47% unfavorable ratings, close to the August numbers.
Asked which candidate better understands the problems faced by ordinary Wisconsinites, 44% said Barnes and 40% said Johnson.
Speaking in Washington, D.C, Johnson reacted to the poll and said: “I just assume it’s a dead-even race. That’s the way I’m going to run this campaign.”
“To the extent there has been a shift, Wisconsinites are finally beginning to understand who Mandela is and what he truly believes," he added.
“Not that he’s telling them. He’s hiding from the press," Johnson continued. "I hope the mainstream media in Wisconsin starts demanding that he start answering their questions and be honest with them, which I don’t think he’s been. He’s been running away from his past positions, which he realizes are out of the mainstream thought of Wisconsinites, incredibly unpopular.”
Barnes campaign spokeswoman Maddy McDaniel countered: "Polls will go up and down, but our campaign remains focused on reaching every voter we need to win, and Mandela will continue to bring his message of fighting for the middle class to every corner of Wisconsin.”
Tony Evers and Tim Michels are still in a tight race for Wisconsin governor
In the governor's race, 45% viewed Evers favorably and 45% unfavorably, while 34% had a favorable opinion of Michels and 39% an unfavorable view.
On the question of which candidate for governor better understands the problems faced by ordinary Wisconsinites, 47% said Evers and 41% said Michels.
"I think it's going to be a close race all the way along," Evers said after an event in Milwaukee. "I always felt that way. We are a purple state and I don't think it's going to change over the next couple of months. I will be doing what I can so people understand what we've accomplished, whether it's fixing the roads, saving taxpayers money, in addition to providing services to schools and pointing out the radical things my opponent (believes)."
Michels campaign manager Patrick McNulty countered: "Tim Michels appeals to a broad group of Wisconsinites from all walks of life, and our closing the gap reflects what we are seeing on the trail as we outwork the Evers campaign."
Inflation, crime are Wisconsinvoters' top concerns
On the issues, 70% of those responding said they were concerned with inflation. Other issues of concern included crime (61%); an accurate vote count (56%); public schools (56%); gun violence (55%); abortion policy (53%); taxes (51%); climate change (44%); illegal immigration (38%); coronavirus (22%).
On abortion, 30% favored the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that overturned the Roe v. Wade, while 63% opposed that decision.
More specifically, 83% favor allowing abortions in cases of rape or incest, while 10% opposed such exceptions.
Opinion was mixed on President Joe Biden's move to forgive up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt, with 46% approving the push and 50% disapproving.
Biden's job approval remained unchanged at 40% approval and 55% disapproval.
The survey of 801 Wisconsin registered voters was conducted Sept. 6-11 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3%. The sample of 602 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.
The makeup was 30% Republicans, 29% Democratic and 41% independent.