Redistricting, RNC and congressional races: 9 Wisconsin political storylines for 2024
Hope KarnoppFrom new statewide legislative maps to the Republican National Convention coming to Milwaukee, 2024 is shaping up to be another busy year in Wisconsin politics.
But beyond major elections for president and Congress, state lawmakers will continue working on finer policy areas like child care, election administration and tax cuts.
Here's a look ahead at the major Wisconsin political storylines you'll want to follow:
New legislative maps and possible appeals are at forefront
One of the first, sweeping changes that will come to Wisconsin in spring is new legislative maps, which will have to be in place by March 15, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission.
The new maps could alter the makeup of the Legislature, possibly giving Democrats more power. It might also change who your representative or senator is: Half of the state Senate and the full state Assembly will run in new districts.
And keep an eye out for possible appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court, after Assembly Speaker Robin Vos indicated Republicans would take the ruling to the nation's highest court.
More:Here's what to know about the Wisconsin Supreme Court's gerrymandering ruling
Who will challenge Tammy Baldwin in the US Senate?
If you follow Wisconsin politics closely, it probably won't come as a surprise when Madison businessman Eric Hovde announces early next year that he'll run against Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who's seeking a third term.
What's still uncertain is if others will jump into the race, including Scott Mayer, a businessman from Franklin, and former Milwaukee County Sheriff David A. Clarke Jr.
Come November, we'll be looking to see how much of a challenge Hovde or other candidates posed to Baldwin. Historically, she has won with large margins by Wisconsin standards: almost 11 points in 2018, and over five points in 2012.
3rd Congressional District could be expensive race
Another key race to watch is the competitive 3rd Congressional District in western Wisconsin. Democrats are looking to retake the seat from U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who flipped the district to Republicans for the first time in 26 years.
The Democratic field will narrow by the August primary. The group of challengers includes La Crosse County Board Chair Tara Johnson, state Rep. Katrina Shankland and former Eau Claire small-business owner Rebecca Cooke.
We'll be following the fundraising for this race, which is expected to be expensive. In 2022, national GOP groups poured money into advertising for Van Orden, while Democratic groups didn't invest in state Sen. Brad Pfaff's candidacy. Van Orden won by four points.
More:Tammy Baldwin, Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden post big fundraising advantages
Republican National Convention comes to Milwaukee
Perhaps the biggest political event in Wisconsin in 2024 will be the Republican National Convention, held primarily at Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum from July 15 to July 18, when the GOP will nominate its national ticket.
Beyond the political fanfare, the convention will put Milwaukee in the national spotlight. Local vendors are hoping to make money, and security preparations include local law enforcement.
Another thing to watch is whether state Republicans rally around former President Donald Trump, if he becomes the nominee. Vos said he wouldn't support Trump in the primary, and Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, the other top Republican in the Capitol, prefers former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.
More:2024 Republican National Convention starts taking shape inside Fiserv Forum. See inside.
Election bills, including campaign AI use, on the docket
In those upcoming elections, voters might feel the impacts of bipartisan proposals to change voting laws. Many have been passed by the Assembly but await action in the Senate before they can be signed into law. Evers has signed or vetoed a handful of bills.
When the Senate reconvenes for the first time in 2024, we'll see whether it'll take up a bill that would allow clerks to begin processing absentee ballots on the Monday before an election. That means Wisconsin could have results earlier Tuesday night, and prevent confusion and conspiracy claims that result from late-night "ballot dumps."
One of the next bills on the docket is a bipartisan proposal that would require TV and radio campaign ads to disclose if they use content generated by artificial intelligence. A legislative task force has also been studying AI.
Abortion rulings, possible referendum at stake
While Planned Parenthood resumed abortion services at three locations in 2023, the lawsuit over Wisconsin's abortion laws isn't over quite yet.
Sheboygan County District Attorney Joel Urmanski is appealing a Dane County judge's ruling that the state's 1849 law applies to feticide, not abortions. The case could ultimately reach the state Supreme Court.
Meanwhile, Vos said Republicans will try to put a referendum on the April ballot that asks voters whether to ban abortions after 12 or 14 weeks. But Evers would have to back the measure, and he's already promised a veto.
More:Sheboygan DA appeals ruling that made abortion legal, pushing issue closer to Supreme Court
What will be the effects of UW deal with Vos?
Late this year, the University of Wisconsin System Board of Regents approved a deal after a months-long standoff between the public university system and Vos, who has demanded cuts to DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) programming.
Yet to be seen is how the compromise will affect employees in 43 diversity positions, which are set to be reclassified under the deal, and the groups of students they serve. Hiring and admissions will also be affected.
And it's unlikely that this is the last word in Republicans' scrutiny of DEI on campuses — Vos called the deal a "first step" after it was approved.
More:In deal with Republicans, UW Regents chose pragmatism over principles. Now what?
Disagreements on child care solutions continue
Lawmakers remain at a standstill over policies that could alleviate the state's child care challenges, including availability and affordability.
While the Senate could take up a slate of bills that would loosen regulations and create loan and savings programs, Evers is all but certain to veto them, bringing lawmakers back to square one.
While bipartisan consensus didn't happen this year, that could change next year. The state Department of Children and Families plans to work with lawmakers, and a task force could be created.
More:Republican bill would offer tax credits to businesses that help with employees' child care
Tax-cut proposals for retirees expected
While several GOP-authored, middle-class tax cuts were proposed and failed this year, Republicans plan to keep trying — this time, focusing on retirees who move to snowbird states like Florida.
Republicans want to make Wisconsin align with states that don't tax retirement income. Two middle-class retirees could see a tax cut of $1,000 to $2,000 under the plan, Vos said.
Any tax cuts floated next year would lean on the state's surplus — Wisconsin has $4 billion budget surplus and a $2 billion rainy-day fund.
More:Has Evers vetoed multiple GOP middle-class tax cut proposals this year? Here’s what we found.