Polling on Tony Evers and Joe Biden in 2022 looks a lot like polling on Scott Walker and Donald Trump in 2018
Four years ago, the governor of Wisconsin entered the fall of his reelection year clinging to a small lead over his lesser-known challenger despite the political drag of an unpopular president in his own party.
That was Republican Scott Walker, and he lost.
Today the man who beat him, Democrat Tony Evers, finds himself in a very similar position.
Like Walker in the summer of 2018, Evers’ approval ratings are marginally positive.
Like Walker, he holds a small lead over his opponent.
And like Walker, Evers shares a political party with a first-term president dogged by negative job ratings.
In Walker’s case, it was Republican President Donald Trump.
In Evers’ case, it’s Democratic President Joe Biden, who appeared with the governor at Milwaukee’s Laborfest on Monday.
A comparison of the summertime polling in Wisconsin in 2018 and 2022 reveals some uncanny parallels between Walker’s numbers and Evers’ numbers entering the home stretch of their reelection campaigns. Some of their key polling benchmarks are virtually identical.
That fact probably says less about the personal parallels between these two governors than it does about the landscape they share: the extreme competitiveness of their state, the polarized character of politics today and the nature of midterm elections.
Walker and Evers are different politicians from different parties with different styles and histories.
Along with the obvious parallels between their races, the polling also reflects important distinctions in their circumstances and their public images. Walker was seeking a third term, Evers a second. Republicans controlled the Legislature under Walker. Government is divided under Evers. Voters are less polarized over Evers than they were over Walker.
Key features of the 2022 campaign cycle weren’t present in 2018, including a very dark public mood, an economy marked by high inflation and a super-tight job market, the pandemic, the salience of abortion after the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and the unusually prominent political role being played by a former president (Trump).
To explore both the similarities and contrasts between Wisconsin’s past two races for governor, I took a closer look at how Walker, Trump, Evers and Biden were polling here at the same point in these two midterm election cycles. The survey data was provided by Marquette pollster Charles Franklin and drawn from the three surveys Franklin conducted in the summer of 2018 (June, July and August) and the two he conducted in the summer of 2022 (June and August).
Let’s start with the parallels:
- Walker and Evers had the same net job approval going into their fall campaigns. In the summer of 2018, 48% of registered voters approved of Walker and 46% disapproved, for a net rating of plus 2. In the summer of 2022, 47% of voters approved of Evers and 45% disapproved, for a net rating of plus 2.
- Walker and Evers each polled two points ahead of their general election challenger following the August primaries. Walker led Evers 46% to 44% (with a third candidate drawing 7%) in August of 2018. Evers led GOP opponent Tim Michels 45% to 43% (with a third candidate drawing 7%) in August of 2022.
- In both cases, the sitting president in the governor’s party was “under water” politically, meaning more voters disapproved than approved of his performance.
- In both cases, Wisconsin’s governor was significantly outperforming the president among his state’s voters. Walker’s job approval was 5 points higher than fellow Republican Trump’s, and Evers' job approval was 7 points higher than fellow Democrat Biden’s.
What explains the sameness of all these numbers?
It starts with the fact that Wisconsin is an evenly divided state where very close elections at the top of the ticket are not only commonplace — they’re the norm. Evers defeated Walker by 1 point in 2018, a race sandwiched between two presidential contests (2016 and 2020) that were even closer.
The polarized nature of our politics means that governors and presidents can count on the overwhelming opposition of voters in the other party. As a result, their job ratings typically fall into a narrower range than they would have two or three decades ago.
For all the parallels, there are also big differences in Wisconsin polling numbers
What about the differences?
There are some big ones.
In 2018, Democratic voters were more enthusiastic than Republican voters. This time, the enthusiasm gap has favored Republicans, though it narrowed in the last Marquette poll.
Voters were much more upbeat in 2018 than they are in 2022 about where their state is headed.
Walker lost his bid for a third term despite this. In the summer of 2018, 52% of voters said Wisconsin was going in the “right direction” and 42% said it was headed on the “wrong track.” On the eve of the election, “right direction” had climbed to 55% and “wrong track” had dropped to 40%.
But while 55% of voters were happy with where the state was headed, only 48% of those who turned out to vote backed Walker. A critical fraction of the electorate was “satisfied” with conditions but wanted to turn the page on a lightning-rod governor who had served eight years, already achieved his agenda, and frequently left the state during his second term in a failed bid for president.
While Walker barely lost despite underperforming the state’s “right track” number, Evers will have to dramatically overperform “right track” to have a shot at winning.
That’s because the electorate is a lot more pessimistic today. Combining Marquette’s last two polls (June and August), only 36% say the state is headed in the right direction — about 20 points lower than on the eve of the 2018 election. Yet Evers' approval, at 47%, is much higher than the right track number.
How has he managed that?
The simplest explanation is that not only Republicans, but a lot of Democrats (40% of them) are pessimistic about the future, using this measure. That depresses the “right track” number. Except these Democrats are frustrated for different reasons than Republicans. They’re upset about Trump and the GOP and Republican opposition to Biden and Evers. That’s why almost a third of voters who say Wisconsin is on the “wrong track” approve of the state’s governor.
The polling points to other contrasts as well between Walker and Evers.
While their overall approval ratings in the summers of 2018 and 2022 were virtually identical, they got there in different ways.
Walker’s numbers were built more on his partisan base. He had an even higher job rating in his own party than Evers has in his party. But Walker had a negative job rating among independents in the summer of 2018, a harbinger of trouble. Evers has a positive job rating among independents.
Voters had more intense feelings about Walker than they do about Evers. Marquette’s polling offers respondents the option of “strongly” approving or disapproving of their governor or “somewhat” approving or disapproving. In August of 2018, 68% voiced either “strong” approval or “strong” disapproval of Walker; in August of 2022, 57% registered “strong” approval or “strong” disapproval of Evers.
Voters were more polarized along party lines over Walker than they are over Evers. But men and women are further apart in their attitudes about Evers than about Walker. Put another way, the gender gap is bigger. (This was true both before and after Roe v. Wade was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court).
There are also differences in the role that the presidency is playing in these two races for governor.
Both Trump in the summer of 2018 and Biden in the summer of 2022 suffered from negative job ratings, making them a potential drag on Walker and Evers, respectively.
Biden‘s midterm numbers are even worse than Trump’s were here. In the summer of 2018, Trump averaged 43% approval and 50% disapproval. This summer, Biden is averaging 40% approval and 56% disapproval. Biden has fewer “strong” approvers than Trump did and more “strong” disapprovers.
That suggests Biden may be a bigger drag on Evers than Trump was on Walker. But that could change if Biden’s approval rating starts to tick up here, as it has nationally.
Trump represents a wild card in 2022
Another caveat is really one of the unique wild cards of the 2022 midterms, which is the centrality of a former president (Trump) in the political news. There is no parallel to this in the 2018 midterm. Democrats are trying to make the election as much a referendum on Trump as Biden, who repeated his attacks on “MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republicans” during his visit to Milwaukee Monday.
Whether Democrats succeed in this remains to be seen. But Trump has a 38% positive rating in Marquette’s polling, making him slightly more unpopular than even Biden in Wisconsin.
None of these comparisons tell us who is going to win this year’s race for governor. Some of the differences between 2018 and 2022 suggest Evers has an easier path than Walker did. Some suggest he has a harder path.
But the broad similarities point to another epic nailbiter.