Obama's trip to Milwaukee comes as Democrats face the challenge of energizing young voters and voters of color
When former President Barack Obama comes to Milwaukee on Saturday, his job will be a very familiar one: driving up Democratic turnout.
That task comes with extra urgency this year.
Democrats face the classic midterm perils of a party in power.
President Joe Biden is unpopular. His support is especially soft with young voters and voters of color, and these groups may be the two biggest turnout concerns for Democrats in Wisconsin this year.
Compared with the last Wisconsin midterm election in 2018, enthusiasm for voting is lagging among voters under 30 and non-white voters, according to public polling.
In geographic terms, it appears to be lagging in the city of Milwaukee, where election turnout is always vital for Democrats in tight races.
It’s fair to ask how much Obama can do about that. He’s been out of office for almost six years. Campaign visits by former presidents or even sitting presidents tend to have pretty limited effects.
But the political logic of the Obama visit is undeniable. As candidate and president, he had an unusual capacity to energize these same segments of the Democratic base that are tepid toward Biden and iffy about voting this fall.
In that sense, his visit neatly highlights his party’s turnout challenges in 2022.
This is the fourth time in the last six election cycles that Obama has visited Milwaukee in the closing days of an election. This trip comes with two contests on the Wisconsin ballot that have huge national significance: the race for governor between incumbent Democrat Tony Evers and GOP challenger Tim Michels; and the race for U.S. Senate between incumbent Republican Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes.
To explore the politics of the Obama visit, I looked at what polling tells us about the big turnout questions for Democrats this year, drawing on multiple surveys done by the Marquette Law School in the fall of 2018 and the fall of 2022.
Wisconsin's 2018 midterm turnout was huge
Wisconsin generated an almost freakish midterm turnout in 2018 of close to 2.7 million – about 61% of eligible voters. That was second highest in the nation, according to the U.S. Elections Project, and about 5 percentage points higher than the previous midterm of 2014.
In Marquette’s polling during that fall of 2018, 67% of registered voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting, and 75% said they were “absolutely certain” to vote. (These are the two best turnout barometers in this survey).
How does Marquette’s polling in the fall of 2022 compare?
Enthusiasm is down slightly from the fall of 2018 (63%), but the share of voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote is virtually the same at 76%. Many strategists on both sides expect turnout to be well above the average Wisconsin midterm, whether or not it matches the remarkable levels of 2018.
Does one side appear to have a turnout edge this year?
The Marquette poll offers a mixed and nuanced picture here.
By some measures, Democrats are matching Republicans in enthusiasm, which would be good news for the party in power, since voters in the party out of power are typically more motivated in midterms.
Combining the Marquette polls in September and October, 80% of Republicans and 81% of Democrats say they’re absolutely certain to vote (this is the definition of a “likely voter” in this survey). Meanwhile, 73% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans say they’re “very enthusiastic” about voting this time.
Based on these numbers, partisan Democrats are just as motivated to vote as partisan Republicans. if not slightly more so.
Republican-leaning independents are more motivated this time
But if we look at less partisan segments of the electorate, we see more of a GOP advantage: 79% of Republican-leaning independents in the last poll said they were certain to vote, compared with just 67% of Democratic-leaning independents. In other words, “soft Democrats” were less motivated than “soft Republicans.”
That helps explain two other related findings in the last Marquette poll, conducted Oct. 3-9: among likely voters, independents had shifted in a GOP direction; and the poll results among likely voters overall were better for Republicans than the poll results among all registered voters surveyed.
In the Senate race, Johnson led Barnes by 6 points among likely voters (those who say they’re certain to vote), but the two were tied among the broader pool of registered voters. In the race for governor, Evers led Michels by just 1 point among likely voters but by 5 among registered voters.
Based on this poll, Democrats have a more pressing need than Republicans to increase their potential turnout and mobilize the more sporadic voters in their coalition.
Two Democratic-leaning groups that have historically lagged in turnout in midterm elections are young voters and voters of color. In regional terms, this also applies to the city of Milwaukee, a big Democratic city with a large African-American and Hispanic population.
And here the polling tells a pretty clear story.
Drawing on Marquette’s surveys, I looked at a variety of different demographic factors (age, race, region, etc.) to see how levels of enthusiasm and certainty of voting this fall compared with the fall of 2018.
Young voters, non-whites are less enthused
The voting segments with the biggest declines in these measures were: the city of Milwaukee, young voters and non-white voters. For example, in September and October of 2018, 48% of Wisconsin voters under 30 described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting that year; this fall, only 38% do.
Young voters and non-white voters typically turn out at lower rates than older voters and white voters. But Democrats in Wisconsin did a pretty good job of mobilizing these groups four years ago when they turned out at far higher rates than they had in 2014, according to post-election surveys by the Census Bureau.
These groups have something else in common. They represented a particular strength for Obama but represent a relative weakness for Biden.
An analysis of Marquette’s polling in Wisconsin shows that the biggest differences between Obama’s and Biden’s approval ratings as president can be found among these same voting groups.
Among voters under 30 in this state, Biden’s net job rating in 2022 is minus 29 (32% approve, 61% disapprove). That’s 36 points worse than Obama’s net rating during the midterm election year of 2014, and 60 points worse than Obama’s rating with young voters during his final year of office in 2016.
Among non-white voters, Biden’s rating of plus 5 is 27 points worse than 2014 Obama and 42 points worse than 2016 Obama.
In regional terms, the falloff in approval from Obama to Biden is greater in the city of Milwaukee than any other region of the state in Marquette’s polling.
These voters are just part of the turnout picture. And turnout is just part of the 2022 election equation, along with the battle for those independent and swing voters that are still in play this year.
But for a party that is fighting the historical midterm drag of a big economic downer (inflation) and a president with negative job ratings (Biden), mobilizing every part of the coalition is vital.
The polling suggests Democrats still have their work cut out for them on that front.