Heating bills could be 20% less this winter, but it will still be one of the most expensive on record

Wisconsinites who heat their homes with natural gas are in line for some badly needed relief this winter.

One year after a spike in gas prices led to the most expensive home heating season on record, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects average home heating costs in the Midwest will be down 21% for the 2023-24 home heating season.

That's the good news. The bad: Even with that price drop, this winter is expected to be the third most expensive on record, according to historic price data from the EIA. And that's just for natural gas customers. Those who heat with electricity or propane will see smaller decreases.

Gas furnaces are by far the most common heat sources in Wisconsin, accounting for about two-thirds of all Wisconsin households, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2021 American Community Survey. In Milwaukee County, that percentage jumps to nearly 80%.

How much customers will actually pay can vary significantly depending on the weather, their utility, the condition of their home and furnace, and other factors.

Here's what you need to know as winter approaches:

How much your home heating bill will drop varies by where you live

The weather where you live can affect how much you pay. Last winter for example, the average We Energies customer in southeast Wisconsin paid about $725 for heat between November and April, compared to the roughly $800 paid by customers of Wisconsin Public Service Corp., the sister utility that serves northeast Wisconsin.

This year, We Energies customers can expect that cost to be down $50 or $60, or about $8 to $10 a month, while WPS customers' bills will fall about $120, or $20 a month, said Brendan Conway, spokesman for the utilities' parent company, WEC Energy Group.

The differences between the utilities is partly a function of the WPS service territory being colder, but they also reflect the cost of operating and maintaining the gas supply network, the cost of gas that's been bought and stored and winter supply contracts. In addition, We Energies customers are paying for two massive natural gas storage facilities that are under construction in Jefferson and Walworth counties.

Remember, these are only estimates

Weather, gas supply interruptions or increased fuel costs when demand rises during periods extreme cold can dramatically change the numbers. The EIA estimates that an uncommonly cold winter could add about $50 to the average heating bill in the Midwest, while a mild winter could bring costs down another $30.

WEC's cost estimates are based on 20-year weather averages.

In addition, the Wisconsin Public Service Commission is currently reviewing 2024 gas and electric rate proposals from all of the state's biggest utilities. Final rates could change before they are set in coming months.

Natural gas is still cheaper than elecrtric or propane heat

The EIA estimates the average household in the Midwest, defined by the agency as 10 states between Ohio and the Dakotas and Missouri, will pay $581 for natural gas heat this winter based on average historic temperatures.

By comparison, EIA estimates households that heat with electricity will pay $1,215 this winter and those that use propane will pay $1,294.

A few simple things to do to cut your heating costs

Heating a home in winter can be expensive, but there are some simple things you can do to reduce your monthly bill.

• Replace furnace filters - If your furnace can't breathe, you're wasting gas.
• Get a furnace tune-up - It's a little more costly but it will ensure your furnace is operating at peak efficiency.
• Look for places where cold air can get inside - Seal gaps in windows and other places to stop cold air leaks. Wisconsin Focus on Energy offers free weatherization kits.
• Install a smart thermostat that can adjust remperatures based on when you're home, away or asleep.
• Use your curtains or shades - A little sunshine can make a big difference in daytime room temperatures and closing the curtains at night helps keep the cold out.

What can I do if I'm worried about being able to pay my bill?

Wisconsin earlier this month was awarded $101 million from the federal government to provide home heating assistance through the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program.

The program, administered in Wisconsin by the Division of Energy, Housing and Community Resources, provides heating assistance to housholds that earn 60% or less of the median state income. For a family of three, that's up to $54,678 of household income, before taxes.

Last year, LIHEAP provided an average of $696 in winter heating assistance to 151,377 Wisconsin households.You can apply for assistance at energybenefit.wi.gov.

I don't qualify for low-income assistance programs. How can I reduce my bill?

Wisconsin utilities offer budget billing programs that average the cost of gas and electric service over a six-month period. How much you pay is based on your energy use over the previous 12 months.

The programs help customers avoid the shock of a massive monthly bill following following periods of deep cold.