A new Wisconsin poll underscores the challenges for two incumbents, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson
Craig Gilbert
Amid a national slump in his popularity, President Joe’s Biden’s approval rating has dipped in Wisconsin as well, dropping from 49% in August to 43% in a statewide poll by the Marquette University Law School released Wednesday.
But it isn’t only Biden drawing negative or declining ratings in this battleground state a year before the 2022 midterms.
Approval for Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is down from 50% in August to 45% in the new poll. Asked if they would vote to reelect him or vote for someone else, 40% said "reelect" and 53% said "someone else."
Evers faces reelection next year. This is the first time in 17 Marquette polls that Evers has not had a positive approval rating.
Meanwhile, views are negative toward the leading Republican in Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson, whose seat will be on the ballot next year: 36% viewed him favorably, 42% unfavorably and the rest didn't know. That is basically unchanged from August. But Marquette has polled on Johnson nearly 50 times since 2012, and he has received his highest negatives in the last two surveys.
Just 38% said they would vote to reelect Johnson, while 52% said they would vote for someone else.
These kind of "reelect" questions can overstate the level of opposition to incumbents by pitting them against an unnamed opponent.
But they are part of a broader picture in the poll that is full of negative perceptions toward political leaders.
"It's a challenging political environment for politicians generally and for incumbents specifically," said Marquette pollster Charles Franklin.
Franklin said the reelection numbers provide a measure of firm base support for an incumbent. He said it was striking that despite representing different parties, Johnson and Evers each have a reelect number of around 40%. In both cases, they are overwhelmingly backed by voters in their own party, overwhelmingly opposed by voters in the other party, and struggling with independents.
Former President Trump's numbers were the worst of anyone the poll asked about: 38% viewed him favorably, 57% unfavorably, down slightly from August.
In fact, despite his slipping job ratings, Biden led Trump in a hypothetical rematch in Wisconsin 45% to 41% (with 11% saying "neither"). That is the same 4-point margin Biden enjoyed in the Marquette poll's final preelection survey. Biden carried the state by less than 1%.
But as the party in power in Washington, struggling to pass its biggest priorities, Democrats face obvious political dangers in this climate, underscored Tuesday by the party’s defeat for governor in a state (Virginia) that Biden won by 10 points in 2020.
Democrats were only barely winning the governor’s race in New Jersey, a state Biden carried by 16 points, though some analysts predicted that margin would grow as more ballots are counted. Both these races have sent shock waves through the party and exhilarated Republicans.
The survey of 805 registered voters in Wisconsin was taken Oct. 26-31.
Franklin said this was the first time in Marquette's voluminous polling dating back to early 2012 that no politician surveyed had a positive rating.
He attributed that to two things in particular. One is that over time, voters have grown so overwhelmingly negative toward politicians in the "other" party that it depresses everyone's ratings. The other is the current environment of sustained bad news this year, from the ups and downs of the pandemic to the chaos of the Afghanistan withdrawal to inflation.
"It's bipartisan — the antipathy to politicians right now," he said.
Among the poll’s findings:
- 43% approve of Biden's performance, while 53% disapprove. Biden's rating on the pandemic remained positive (50% approve, 46% disapprove), but his rating on the economy (39% approve, 56% disapprove) was much more negative than it was in August.
- 45% approve of Evers' performance while 46% disapprove. In August, 50% approved and 43% disapproved. Views of Evers' handling of the pandemic remained positive (53% approve, 40% disapprove) and virtually unchanged from August.
- 38% viewed Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin favorably while 39% viewed her unfavorably. These ratings are slightly worse than they were in August.
- Johnson's ratings (36% favorable, 42% unfavorable) were a little worse than Baldwin's. The GOP senator has not said whether he is running for reelection.
- Voters were asked whether they trusted Evers and Johnson as sources of information about coronavirus vaccines and treatment: 52% said they trusted Evers a great deal or a fair amount, while 39% said they trusted Johnson a great deal or a fair amount.
- Concern about inflation is high and rising. In August 49% said they were "very concerned" about inflation. That rose to 64% in the new poll.
- Satisfaction with the public schools remains fairly high but has declined since August, when 69% said they were satisfied and 21% said dissatisfied. Today, 61% are satisfied and 31% are dissatisfied.