New MU Law Poll: National Parties Divided

A recent Marquette University (MU) Law School poll found a drop in Governor Walker’s approval rating in Wisconsin and big divides in the major national political parties.

Presidential Politics

In the presidential election, the poll found that 78 percent of Republicans and 84 percent of Democrats are certain they will vote in November. At the same time in 2012, 90 percent of Republicans said they were certain to vote in November, and 80 percent of Democrats reported they were likely to vote.

In a head-to-head matchup polling likely voters, Hillary Clinton received 46 percent of the vote while Donald Trump received 37 percent in Wisconsin. A whopping thirteen percent say they will not support either candidate.

This recent poll highlights the struggle within both political parties to unify behind their respective presumptive nominees. Eighteen percent of registered Republicans or those leaning Republican reported that they will not vote for either Trump or Clinton, and five percent say they do not know how they will vote. Among Democrats and those who lean Democrat, 13 percent said they will not vote for either candidate, and four percent are undecided. In contrast, in June 2012 only three percent of Republicans and two percent of Democrats said they would not support the nominee. Party division is high, however with the national party conventions at the end of the July and the forthcoming vice president candidate picks, there is still a chance for the parties to unify behind their candidates.

Feingold vs. Johnson

In the race for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seat this year, the MU poll finds that despite Russ Feingold’s falling favorability rating, he still beats the incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson, 45 to 41 percent. Viewed favorable by 40 percent, and unknown to 26 percent, Feingold’s ratings are lower than the last MU poll. In March, 41 percent felt favorable to him, 35 percent unfavorable, and 25 percent did not know enough to rate him.

Governor Walker’s Favorability

In state politics, Governor Scott Walker’s approval rating fell for the first time over the last six months. Currently, 39 percent approve of the job he’s doing, while 57 percent disapprove. In March, the governor’s job approval rating was 43 percent.

The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points for the full sample. For likely voters, the margin of error is +/-4.9 percentage points.

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