Political Tidbits

Wisconsin political news for clients and colleagues.

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Oct. 29, 2004

The framers of our Constitution (including a guy named Alexander Hamilton) grappled with many huge questions in crafting that incredible document and balancing the issue of federal versus state power. The major conflicts that surfaced at the Constitutional Convention and how those conflicts could be resolved can be traced to the underlying issue as to how federal representation would be apportioned among the states and how would the many states elect a President. This was resolved by deciding that all states would have equal representation (2) in the Senate (a plus for small states) and proportionate representation in the House (a plus for large states). This also translated to electoral votes that each state could cast for the election of President of the United States - 2 (number of Senators) plus the number of House Districts equals each state’s electoral votes.

[There are 538 electoral votes spread out among the 50 states and the District of Columbia based upon 100 U.S. Senate seats, 435 U.S. House Districts and three allotted to the District of Columbia. The magic number to win outright is 270.]

As we approach November 2, 2004, all the polls and the “experts” are declaring which states and their electoral votes are solid and likely for the two candidates and which states are too close to call and are categorized as toss-ups. Since not everyone agrees, we suspect that there are somewhere between seven and 11 states that are too close to call with any degree of certainty and somewhere around 100 electoral votes up for grabs. One of those states clearly in the toss-up category is Wisconsin and many believe the outcome of the Presidential election will hinge on the outcome in our state. The attention paid to our state by the candidates and their spouses confirms the extreme importance of Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes.

One analyst claims that Kerry needs Wisconsin to have any chance to win while Bush “could” win without Wisconsin. Another analyst opines that, under his scenario, Bush needs Wisconsin to tie. Our crystal ball is a lot cloudier, but there is no doubt that Wisconsin is a key - if not THE key state - as we approach the finish line.

Every election year we are reminded that our vote counts. For a variety of reasons, this is always true - but, perhaps never truer than in 2004. Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes went to Al Gore four years ago by the thinnest of margins and the polls and the candidates’ attention to our state confirm how close this year’s vote is expected to be.

The analyses presented below on state and national legislative races are meant to be neutral and informative and are based on our collective judgment from reviewing polls and various analysts and discussion with representatives of both parties. We have made some broad predictions relating to party control but we are staying out of the business of predicting winners in individual, close races. We have probably missed identifying a few close races and there are always a few surprises.

Please exercise your right - and obligation - to vote on November 2^nd. Thank you.

Policy Developments

JCRAR Opposes Minimum Wage Hike and DWD Authority
On October 21, the Legislature’s Joint Committee for the Review of Administrative Rules (JCRAR) voted to suspend the Department of Workforce Development’s (DWD) rule increasing the state’s minimum wage and to introduce a bill in the 2005-06 legislative session which would permanently suspend the rule. The Department may proceed with implementation only if the Legislature defeats the bill, fails to act prior to adjournment next session, or the Governor vetoes a passed bill and his veto is sustained.

In a related matter, JCRAR voted to introduce a bill that would eliminate DWD’s authority to increase the minimum wage, leaving that authority solely up to the Legislature.

Assembly Labor Committee Objects to Prevailing Wage Rule
On October 26, the Assembly Labor Committee voted 5-1 to object to DWD’s proposed rule which would revise the formula for determining prevailing wage rates on public projects. (Please see the October 19 Tidbits for additional information on the rule.) The rule now goes to JCRAR which is expected to vote to introduce legislation calling for permanent suspension.

Oral Arguments Heard by Supreme Court in Punitive Damages Case
On October 28, lawyers for various parties presented oral arguments to the State’s highest court in the highly visible Big Blue collapse case that stems from the accident during the construction of Miller Park. In December 2000, a jury awarded $5.25 million in compensatory damages and $94 million in punitive damages. In September of last year, the State Court of Appeals reversed the punitive damages award based on its interpretation of Wisconsin’s punitive damages statute adopted in the 1995 session of the Wisconsin Legislature. That decision was appealed and was the subject of yesterday’s oral arguments before the Supreme Court. Lawyers also argued the question of whether or not the punitive damage award was unconstitutionally excessive. (If the Supreme Court upholds the Appellate Court, it will not have to address the constitutional question.)

Numerous organizations that were involved in the passage of the punitive damages legislation or who have a vested interest in the outcome of the case have filed amicus (friend of the court) legal briefs expressing their respective legal opinions. These groups include: Civil Trial Counsel of Wisconsin (defense lawyers in civil cases); Wisconsin Academy of Trial Lawyers (plaintiff lawyers); Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce; a union consortium including the AFL-CIO and others; and, the Wisconsin Insurance Alliance.

DOT Suspends Enforcement of Political Signage Rule
Wisconsin law prohibits signs on any rural or urban portion of the state highway system right-of-way, and extends to include the placement of political signs, posters, and banners. Political signs are allowed on private property along the state highway system without a billboard permit as long as the signs, among other things, are put up less than 45 days before the election and are removed within one week after the election. Pending revision of the applicable Administrative Rule, DOT has suspended enforcement of these restrictions. The need to revise the rule was prompted by a recent ruling of a Federal District Court in Wisconsin that suggests these time limits may inappropriately limit political speech.

Wisconsin Marketing Mission in Minnesota
On Oct. 27 and 28, a group of Wisconsin economic development professionals joined Forward Wisconsin in meeting with Minnesota CEOs to discuss the advantages of expanding their businesses to the state.

“As Governor, I have worked hard through my ‘Grow Wisconsin’ plan to strengthen Wisconsin’s business climate,” Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle said. “We have implemented the most aggressive regulatory reform in the Midwest, eliminated the tax on creating jobs, reduced permit times, and created a sales tax exemption on energy used in manufacturing. These efforts have helped Wisconsin create more jobs than any of its Midwestern neighbors and have made Wisconsin an even more attractive place to do business.”

The Forward Wisconsin marketing mission to the Twin Cities is an annual marketing strategy that has taken place since the mid-1980s.

Wisconsin Politics

Wisconsin Pre-Election Overview
U.S. Senate & U.S. House – Conventional wisdom, aided by the polls, suggests that the party makeup of the elected officials that we send to Washington, will not change.

Incumbent U.S. Senator Russ Feingold has maintained a lead in the polls over challenger Tim Michaels who was a surprisingly strong winner in the very competitive Republican primary. Senator Feingold’s margin of victory six years ago was slim and this race could be closer than recent polls have suggested.

The map drawn two years ago after re-districting and the loss of one House seat, did nothing to hurt the chances of incumbents in their reelection bids.

Incumbent Ron Kind does, however, face a strong challenge from State Senator Dale Schultz, who has made significant gains over the last few months and may be positioned to provide election night drama in Western Wisconsin.

Republican Dave Magnum has run a spirited campaign against incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin, but the district percentages may be too great a challenge to overcome in the environment of the Presidential election turnout.

It seems likely that State Senator Gwen Moore will be the first African American elected to Congress from Wisconsin.

State Senate - Republicans are virtually certain to return in the majority. The question for months has been and remains as to whether or not the Republicans will increase their majority and by how many seats. The hottest races are in the 32nd and the 30th, with spirited challenges occurring in the 12th and 22nd. All four of these districts are currently held by Democrats.

Senate District 32
This seat was vacated by Democratic Senator Mark Meyer of La Crosse who has held it since 2000 and who was recently appointed as a member of the Public Service Commission. Republican candidate Dan Kapanke served on the Town of Campbell Board for 13 years. In 2003, Dan and his wife Ruth brought a baseball team associated with the Northwoods League to La Crosse. Kapanke is being challenged by Democrat Brad Pfaff of Onalaska, a former legislative aide and senior policy advisor to U.S. Rep. Ron Kind.
Senate District 30
Incumbent Dave Hansen was elected to the Senate in 2000 and as the Assistant Minority Leader in 2003. Republican challenger Gary Drzewiecki was elected to the Senate in 1992 and reelected in 1996. He was defeated for re-election in 2000 by Democrat Hansen.
Senate District 22
Incumbent Bob Wirch is a former factory worker and liaison to JTPA. He has been in the State Senate since 1997 and previously served in the State Assembly. Reince Priebus, Republican challenger, is a practicing attorney who has previously worked as a Legislative Aide in the State Capitol.
Senate District 12
Incumbent Roger Breske has been a member of the State Senate since 1990. He is a former tavern owner. Senator Breske is being challenged by Republican Tom Tiffany, a small business owner in the tourism/hospitality industry.

State Assembly - The Republicans have a comfortable majority in the Assembly with a 59-38 (2 vacancies) margin and are virtually certain to remain in the majority for the 2005-06 legislative session. Status quo for the Republicans is probably viewed as a victory for the GOP but there are a number of interesting contests. The races likely to be the most closely watched on Tuesday are:

Assembly District 36 - This seat became an “open seat” upon the announced retirement of incumbent Lorraine Serrati (R-Spread Eagle). Democrat James Crawford of Crandon, faces Republican Jeffrey Mursau of Crivitz. Crawford is employed by the Potawatami Tribe as ordinance consultant. Jeffrey Mursau is the Crivitz Village President and a small business owner.
Assembly District 68
This seat became open upon the announced retirement of incumbent Larry Balow (D-Eau Claire). The Republican candidate is Terry Moulton, a small business owner from Chippewa Falls. Moulton came within a few hundred votes of winning a seat in the State Assembly in 2002. The Democratic candidate is Joe Bee Ziong of Eau Claire. He is a member of the Eau Claire City Council, a Vietnam veteran and police reserve officer.
Assembly District 80
This seat was held by Mike Powers (R-Albany) who also announced his retirement. Republican candidate Brett Davis of Monroe has worked for former Gov. Tommy G. Thompson, Rep. Mike Powers and, most recently, as Chief of Staff for Sen. Joe Leibham. Gof Thomson has been a community banker in New Glarus for 22 years.
Assembly District 96
DuWayne Johnsrud (R-Eastman) is leaving the State Assembly after serving in that body for 20 years. Republican Lee A. Nerison of Westby is a dairy farmer. Democrat Gail Frie of Viroqua is the Vernon County Solid Waste and Recycling Manager and is currently serving as the chair of the finance committee for the City of Viroqua.
Assembly District 5
Incumbent Becky Weber (R-Green Bay) was first elected to the Assembly in 2002. Democrat Tom Nelson of Kaukauna is finishing up graduate work at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. He previously worked for a Washington, D.C., public policy organization called the Committee for Economic Development.
Assembly District 28
Incumbent Mark Pettis (R-Hertel) was first elected to the Assembly in 1998 and now chairs the Tourism Committee. Pettis is being challenged by Charlie Wolden of Frederic in a rematch of the 2002 race. Pettis defeated Wolden by 53 to 47 percent.
Assembly District 13
Incumbent David Cullen (D- Milwaukee) is a lawyer and was first elected to the Assembly in a May 1990 special election. Republican Matt Adamczyk of Wauwatosa is a junior partner with Adamczyk Heating & Cooling and a former 8th grade mathematics teacher.
Assembly District 29
Incumbent Joe Plouff (D- Menomonie) is a former sales consultant and teacher. He was first elected to the Assembly in 1996. Republican Andy Lamb of Menomonie is the general sales manager at Northtown Ford in Menomonie. He also raises beef cattle near Spring Valley.
Assembly District 74
Incumbent Gary Sherman (D- Port Wing) is an attorney. Sherman was first elected to the Assembly in 1998. Former Democratic legislator turned Republican, Barb Linton of Highbridge was first elected to the Assembly in 1986 and served six terms. She served as co-chair of the Joint Committee on Finance.

Federal Developments

Federal Pre-Election Overview
U.S. Senate
Going into the election, the Republicans have 51seats, Democrats 48 seats and there is one Independent. Of the 33 seats up this year, there are eight seats where there is no clear favorite. Five of these Senate districts are or were held by Democrats and three are or were held by Republicans. Illinois and Georgia, although both open seats, are comfortably in the Democrat and Republican columns respectfully. Another race with potential surprise is the Kentucky seat now held by former major league baseball player Jim Bunning. A nasty campaign has brought that seat into play recently. The odds are that the Republicans, by a thin margin, will retain control of the U.S. Senate. The eight key races are:

South Dakota – Incumbent Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) is in a very tight race with former Congressman John Thune (R). Recent polls have been volatile and the race is too close to call. Thune came within 600 votes of defeating Democratic Senator Tim Johnson in 2002. Thune was elected as South Dakota’s only member of the U.S. House of Representatives in 1996 and served three terms.

Florida – This open seat was vacated by Bob Graham who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for President. His decision to retire has put Florida up for grabs. Democrat Betty Castor , former state education commissioner faces Republican Mel Martinez former Housing and Urban Development Secretary under President George W. Bush. Latest polls give a slight edge, but within the margin of error, to Castor.

Colorado – Pete Coors of brewing fame is in a close battle with Democrat Attorney General Ken Salazar to replace retiring Republican (former Democrat) Ben Nighthorse Campbell.

Oklahoma- This “Republican seat” has become an open seat through the retirement of Don Nichols. Former Republican Congressman Tom Coburn, who retired in 2000 after pledging to serve only three terms, faces the man who replaced him in Congress Democrat Brad Carson.

North Carolina – Democrat Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards would have been up for reelection this year. His national candidacy has, somewhat ironically, opened the door even a little wider for a potential Senatorial pickup in North Carolina for the Republicans. Erskine Bowles, former Clinton White House Chief of Staff, who was defeated by Elizabeth Dole in the 2002 U.S. Senate Race, is locked in a close match up with Republican Congressman Richard Burr who has served in the U.S. House since 1995.

South Carolina – Republican Congressman Jim DeMint faces Democratic State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum.

Alaska – Republican Lisa Murkowski , appointed by her father Frank Murkowski to fill out his term after he became Governor of Alaska, faces a tough challenge from former Governor Tony Knowles.

Louisiana – This seat could be decided in a December runoff and could decide which party rules the Senate if the GOP does not win at least two of the previously discussed races. Republican Rep. David Vitter and three Democrats, Rep. Chris John, State Treasurer John Kennedy and State Representative Arthur Morrell, are all on the ballot in November. Polls reveal that Vitter currently is garnering 47% of the vote. If he receives over 50% of the vote, he will be able to avoid a December runoff against the top Democrat vote getter.

U. S. House
The Republicans hold a 210 to 190 majority with one Independent. There are 15 open Democratic seats and 19 open Republican seats. Of the open seats, only seven are in districts where one party does not claim a strong partisan advantage, three Democratic and four Republican. Another seven seats have incumbents with strong challenges and could be considered toss-ups, three Democrats and fours Republicans. Republicans are more than likely to retain and perhaps expand their current majority in the House. The well respected Cook Political Report lists the races as follows:

Likely Democrat

District Representative

FL-02 Allen Boyd

ME-02 Michael Michaud

ND-AL Earl Pomeroy

OR-05 Darlene Hooley

PA-17 Tim Holden

TN-04 Lincoln Davis

VA-09 Rick Boucher

Leaning Democrat

District Representative

CA-20 OPEN (Dooley)