During this economic downturn it appears that groups are more closely analzying the economic impacts of implementing cap-and-trade and other related climate change policies.
For example, California recently enacted the most ambitious climate change legislation in the country. Assembly Bill 32 requires California to impose a cap-and-trade policy, which would drastically reduce the state’s levels of greenhouse gas emissions.
The legislation also required the state to provide an economic analysis projecting the new law’s impact on the economy. The report was prepared by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which oversees implementation of the new law. According to CARB’s findings, the new cap-and-trade law would actually increase California’s gross state product by $4 billion.
Yet a number of prominent, independent economists questioned CARB’s rosy economic findings. In a recently published peer review, Matthew E. Kahn, Ph.D., noted that while he supports the goals of AB 32, he is “troubled by the economic modeling analysis.” For example, according to Dr. Kahn, implementing portions of the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard would cost $60 billion to implement – $54 billion more than CARB’s projections.
Dr. Gary Yohe, an economics professor at Wesleyan University also questioned CARB’s projection that the state’s gross state product would increase $4 billion as a result of the new cap-and-trade program. In his review, Dr. Yohe said, “I must admit that it is, to me, almost beyond belief that the Supplement would report these numbers instead of a succinct conclusion of ‘essentially no change’ in California’s economic position as a result of the climate measures.”
In a separate paper analyzing CARB’s economic projections, Professor Robert Stavins of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government wrote: “I have come to the inescapable conclusion that the economic analysis is terribly deficient in critical ways and should not be used by the state government or the public for the purpose of assessing the likely costs of CARB’s plans.”